Oscars Predictions: International Feature – Which Country Benefits From the Absence of ‘Anatomy of a Fall?’
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best International Feature
Courtesy of Neon
Weekly Commentary (Updated Jan. 8, 2024): The 15 films in the running for international feature could bring surprise inclusions and exclusions.
The frontrunner and only film that seems locked for a nom is Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest,” given its contending for a slot in best picture. The United Kingdom’s submission could be a runaway.
Beyond that, any of the remaining films can be deemed possible.
Netflix is putting all its might and muscle behind J.A. Bayona’s “Society of the Snow,” and with it showing up on a few other Oscars shortlists, it could be a no-brainer.
“Anatomy of a Fall” has been leading the critics’ prizes but it’s not representing France for the Oscars. That honor was given to “The Taste of Things,” which could ultimately keep the film out of the lineup.
We’ll keep a close eye on Wim Winders’ “Perfect Days,” especially after his other film “Anselm,” was omitted from the documentary feature shortlist. This remains the only option to recognize the Oscar-nominated filmmaker.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom) — dir. Jonathan Glazer
- “Fallen Leaves” (Finland) — dir. Aki Kaurismäki
- “Society of the Snow” (Spain) — dir. J.A. Bayona
- “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany) — dir. İlker Çatak
- “The Mother of All Lies” (Morocco) — dir. Asmae El Moudir
Next in Line
- “The Taste of Things” (France) — dir. Trần Anh Hùng
- “20 Days in Mariupol” (Ukraine) — dir. Mstyslav Chernov
- “Perfect Days” (Japan) — dir. Wim Wenders
- “Io capitano” (Italy) — dir. Matteo Garrone
- “Tótem” (Mexico) — dir. Lila Avilés
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Four Daughters” (Tunisia) — dir. Kaouther Ben Hania
- “The Promised Land” (Denmark) — dir. Nikolaj Arcel
- “Amerikatsi” (Armenia) — dir. Michael A. Goorjian
- “Godland” (Iceland) — dir. Hlynur Pálmason
- “The Monk and the Gun” (Bhutan) — dir. Pawo Choyning Dorji
All Official Submissions (Alphabetized by Country)**
Albania, “Alexander”
Argentina, “The Delinquents”
Armenia, “Amerikatsi”
Australia, “Shayda”
Austria, “Vera”
Bangladesh, “No Ground beneath the Feet”
Belgium, “Omen”
Bhutan, “The Monk and the Gun”
Bolivia, “The Visitor”
Bosnia and Herzegovina, “Excursion”
Brazil, “Pictures of Ghosts”
Bulgaria, “Blaga’s Lessons”
Burkina Faso, “Sira”
Cameroon, “Half Heaven”
Canada, “Rojek”
Chile, “The Settlers”
China, “The Wandering Earth II”
Colombia, “Un Varón”
Costa Rica, “I Have Electric Dreams”
Croatia, “Traces”
Czech Republic, “Brothers”
Denmark, “The Promised Land”
Dominican Republic, “Cuarencena”
Egypt, “Voy! Voy! Voy!”
Estonia, “Smoke Sauna Sisterhood”
Finland, “Fallen Leaves”
France, “The Taste of Things”
Georgia, “Citizen Saint”
Germany, “The Teachers’ Lounge”
Greece, “Behind the Haystacks”
Hungary, “Four Souls of Coyote”
Iceland, “Godland”
India, “2018 – Everyone Is a Hero”
Indonesia, “Autobiography”
Iran, “The Night Guardian”
Iraq, “Hanging Gardens”
Ireland, “In the Shadow of Beirut”
Israel, “Seven Blessings”
Italy, “Io Capitano”
Japan, “Perfect Days”
Jordan, “Inshallah A Boy”
Kenya, “Mvera”
Latvia, “My Freedom”
Lithuania, “Slow”
Luxembourg, “The Last Ashes”
Malaysia, “Tiger Stripes”
Mexico, “Totem”
Moldova, “Thunders”
Mongolia, “City of Wind”
Montenegro, “Sirin”
Morocco, “The Mother of All Lies”
Namibia, “Under the Hanging Tree”
Nepal, “Halkara”
Netherlands, “Sweet Dreams”
Nigeria, “Mami Wata”
North Macedonia, “Housekeeping for Beginners”
Norway, “Songs of Earth”
Pakistan, “In Flames”
Palestine, “Bye Bye Tiberias”
Panama, “Tito, Margot and Me”
Paraguay, “The Last Runway 2, Comando Yaguarete”
Peru, “The Erection of Toribio Bardelli”
Philippines, “The Missing”
Poland, “The Peasants”
Portugal, “Bad Living”
Romania, “Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World”
Saudi Arabia, “Alhamour H.A.”
Senegal, “Banel & Adama”
Serbia, “The Duke and the Poet”
Singapore, “The Breaking Ice”
Slovakia, “Photophobia”
Slovenia, “Riders”
South Africa, “Music Is My Life – Dr. Joseph Shabalala and Ladysmith Black Mambazo”
South Korea, “Concrete Utopia”
Spain, “Society of the Snow”
Sudan, “Goodbye Julia”
Sweden, “Opponent”
Switzerland, “Thunder”
Taiwan, “Marry My Dead Body”
Thailand, “Not Friends”
Tunisia, “Four Daughters”
Turkey, “About Dry Grasses”
Ukraine, “20 Days in Mariupol”
United Kingdom, “The Zone of Interest”
Uruguay, “Family Album”
Venezuela, “The Shadow of the Sun”
Vietnam, “Glorious Ashes”
Yemen, “The Burdened”
2022 category winner: “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany) — dir. Edward Berger
** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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