Oscars Predictions: Adapted Screenplay – Will Greta Gerwig’s Originality Help ‘Barbie’ Win Over the Scribes?

By temporary On Jan 9, 2024 24

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2024 Oscars Predictions:

Best Adapted Screenplay

Weekly Commentary (Updated Jan. 8, 2024): Greta Gerwig‘s blockbuster comedy “Barbie” has been deemed an adapted screenplay by the Writers Branch executive committee of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, despite campaigning for original screenplay.

Many films about pre-existing characters are ultimately classified as adapted screenplays — such as previous nominees like “Toy Story 3,” “Borat 2,” “Before Sunset” and “Before Midnight.” Barbie and Ken were Mattel dolls long before they came to the big screen, where the Oscars’ decision likely originated.

Gerwig’s writing partner and husband, Baumbach, also has three nods in his career — two for original screenpaly for “The Squid and the Whale” (2005) and “Marriage Story” (2018), plus a best picture nod for the latter. This could be a great way to give both beloved filmmakers their due. In adapted, “Barbie” will likely face off against “Poor Things” by Tony McNamara, “Killers of the Flower Moon” by Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese, and its “Barbenheimer” partner, “Oppenheimer” by Christopher Nolan.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

Listed writer credits are not final. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

“Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach (based on Barbie by Mattel)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Tony McNamara (based on the book by Alasdair Gray)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan (based on the book by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin)
“American Fiction” (MGM) — Cord Jefferson (based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann)

Next in Line

“All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures) — Andrew Haigh (based on the book by Taichi Yamada)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24) — Jonathan Glazer (based on “The Zone of Interest” by Martin Amis)
“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate) — Kelly Fremon Craig (based on the novel by Judy Blume)
“Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures) — Rebecca Angelo, Lauren Schuker Blum (based on the book by Ben Mezrich)
“Ferrari” (Neon) — Troy Kennedy Martin (based on the novel by Brock Yates)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

“Origin” (Neon) — Ava DuVernay (based on “Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents” by Isabel Wilkerson)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Dave Callaham (based on the character created by Marvel Comics)
“The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) — Tran Anh Hung (based on the novel by Marcel Rouffe)
“BlackBerry” (IFC Films) — Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller (based on the book by Jacquie McNish, Sean Silcoff)
“Society of the Snow” (Netflix) — J. A. Bayona, Bernat Vilaplana, Jaime Marques, Nicolás Casariego
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Marcus Gardley (based on the novel by Alice Walker and the musical by Brenda Russell, Allee Willis, Stephen Bray, Marsha Norman)
“The Boys in the Boat” (MGM) — Mark L. Smith (based on the book by Daniel James Brown)
“Priscilla” (A24) — Sofia Coppola (based on the book by Priscilla Presley, Sandra Harmon)
“Nyad” (Netflix) — Julia Cox (based on “Find a Way” by Diana Nyad)
“Eileen” (Neon) — Ottessa Moshfegh, Luke Goebel (based on the novel by Moshfegh)

Also In Contention

“Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Mark St. Germain (based on the play by Germain)
“The Burial” (Amazon Studios) — Doug Wright, Maggie Betts (based on the book by Jonathan Harr)
“The Killer” (Netflix) — Andrew Kevin Walker (based on graphic novel by Alexis Nolent, Luc Jacamon)
“How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon) — Ariela Barer, Jordan Sjol, Daniel Goldhaber (based on the novel by Andreas Malm)
“Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures) — Taika Waititi, Iain Morris (based on the book by Mike Brett, Steve Jamison)
“Creed III” (MGM) — Ryan Coogler, Keenan Coogler, Zach Baylin (based on characters by Sylvester Stallone)
“Wonka” (Warner Bros.) — Simon Farnaby, Paul King (based on characters created by Roald Dahl)
“Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) — Sarah Conradt (based on the novels “Mothers’ Instincts” by Giordano Gederlini and Olivier Masset-Depasse and “Behind the Hatred” by Barbara Abel)
“Foe” (Amazon Studios) — Iain Reid, Garth Davis (based on the book by Reid)
“The Marvels” (Marvel Studios) — Nia DaCosta, Megan McDonnell, Elissa Karasik (based on the characters by Marvel Comics)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

“A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios) — Michael Green
“Priscilla” (A24) — Sofia Coppola
“When You Finish Saving the World” (A24) — Jesse Eisenberg
“The Zone of Interest” (A24) — Jonathan Glazer
“The Burial” (Amazon Studios) — Doug Wright, Maggie Betts
“Foe” (Amazon Studios) — Iain Reid, Garth Davis
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
“Across the River and Into the Trees” (Bleecker Street) — Peter Flannery
“Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation) — Jonathan Aibel, Glenn Berger, Elizabeth Tippet
“My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” (Focus Features) — Nia Vardalos
“BlackBerry” (IFC Films) — Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller
“The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) — Tran Anh Hung
“The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination) — Matthew Fogel
“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate) — Kelly Fremon Craig
“The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate) — Michael Lesslie, Michael Arndt
“John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate) — Shay Hatten, Michael Finch
“Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios) — Jeff Loveness
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios) — James Gunn
“The Marvels” (Marvel Studios) — Nia DaCosta, Megan McDonnell, Elissa Karasik
“American Fiction” (MGM) — Cord Jefferson
“The Boys in the Boat” (MGM) — Mark L. Smith
“Creed III” (MGM) — Ryan Coogler, Keenan Coogler, Zach Baylin
“Eileen” (Neon) — Ottessa Moshfegh, Luke Goebel
“How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon) — Ariela Barer, Jordan Sjol, Daniel Goldhaber
“Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) — Sarah Conradt
“Origin” (Neon) — Ava DuVernay (based on the book by Isabel Wilkerson) **
“Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (Netflix) — Karey Kirkpatrick, John O’Farrell, Rachel Tunnard
“The Killer” (Netflix) — Andrew Kevin Walker
“Leave the World Behind” (Netflix) — Sam Esmail
“Nimona” (Netflix) — Robert L. Baird, Lloyd Taylor
“Nyad” (Netflix) — Julia Cox
“Pain Hustlers” (Netflix) — Wells Tower
“Society of the Snow” (Netflix) — J. A. Bayona, Bernat Vilaplana, Jaime Marques, Nicolás Casariego
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures) — Christopher McQuarrie, Erik Jendresen
“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures) — Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Jeff Rowe, Dan Hernandez, Benji Samit, Brendon O’Brien
“Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures) — Taika Waititi **
“Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures) — Marielle Heller **
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Tony McNamara
“Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures) — Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, Nick Lieberman, Ben Platt
“Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures) — Rebecca Angelo, Lauren Schuker Blum
“The Equalizer 3” (Sony Pictures) — Richard Wenk
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Dave Callaham
“Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Mark St. Germain
“Ferrari” (Neon) — Troy Kennedy Martin
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach **
“Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.) — Gareth Dunnet-Alcocer
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Marcus Gardley
“Wonka” (Warner Bros.) — Simon Farnaby, Paul King
“The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures) — David Magee

2022 category winner: “Women Talking” (MGM) — Sarah Polley (based on the novel by Miriam Toews)

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.

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About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.