Final Oscars Predictions: Best Picture – Did the PGA Awards Correctly Predict the 10-Film Lineup?

By temporary On Jan 19, 2024 21

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2024 Oscars Predictions:

Best Picture

Weekly Commentary (Updated Jan. 18, 2024): The 2024 Producers Guild of America Awards nominated two international titles — Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall” and Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest” — the first time two international titles have been nominated by the guild. We look likely to see the same history made at the Oscars. In addition to Celine Song’s “Past Lives,” which is mostly in Korean, a record three non-English movies could be nominated for best picture.

Based on dozens of conversations with AMPAS voters, strategists and others, I feel fairly confident that both “Anatomy” and “Zone” will make the cut. With the latter, it was surprising how much the movie came up and how many voters put it high on their ballots.

With predicting the PGA nominated movies, that leaves lots of doubt. Those 10 were being heavily predicted by pundits to be the eventual best picture lineup. PGA typically misses one or two of the eventual nominees. The problem with that is, it’s hard to figure out which one or two are vulnerable. “American Fiction,” “Maestro” and “Past Lives” seem to be the most vulnerable, but I would still be very surprised if any of them missed. And then there’s the added question — which film(s) replace them? There are guesses it’s “The Color Purple” based on the SAG ensemble nod, but I look for movies such as “The Blind Side” and “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” that truly shock a lineup. That could be “Saltburn,” “Ferrari” or even “Napoleon.” I also still wouldn’t count out “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” either.

Happy predicting.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

Listed producer credits are not final and are subject to change. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner
“Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)

Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion
“Maestro” (Netflix)

Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)

Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson
“American Fiction” (MGM)

Cord Jefferson, Jermaine Johnson, Nikos Karamigios, Ben LeClair
“Past Lives” (A24)

David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon

Next in Line

“Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)

Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie
“The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

Quincy Jones, Scott Sanders, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg
“Ferrari” (Neon)

Monika Bacardi, Thomas Hayslip, Andrea Iervolino, John Lesher, Michael Mann, Laura Rister, Thorsten Schumacher, Lars Sylvest, P.J. van Sandwijk, Gareth West
“May December” (Netflix)

Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon
“All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)

Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Sarah Harvey
“Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)

Mark Huffam, Ridley Scott, Kevin J. Walsh
“Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)

Ben Affleck, Madison Ainley, Jason Michael Berman, Matt Damon, David Ellison, Peter Guber, Jeff Robinov, Jesse Sisgold, Jon Weinbach
“Origin” (Neon)

Ava DuVernay, Paul Garnes
“The Iron Claw” (A24)

Sean Durkin, Juliette Howell, Angus Lamont, Tessa Ross

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

“Society of the Snow” (Netflix)

Belén Atienza, Sandra Hermida
“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.” (Lionsgate)

Julie Ansell, James L. Brooks, Kelly Fremon Craig
“The Boy and the Heron” (GKids)

Toshio Suzuki
“The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)

Olivier Delbosc
“Rustin” (Netflix)

Bruce Cohen, Tonia Davis
“BlackBerry” (IFC Films)

Fraser Ash, Niv Fichman, Kevin Krikst, Matthew Miller
“Priscilla” (A24)

Sofia Coppola, Youree Henley, Lorenzo Mieli
“Wonka” (Warner Bros.)

David Heyman, Alexandra Derbyshire, Luke Kelly
“The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Ingo Fliess
“Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment)

Michel Franco, Duncan Montgomery, Eréndira Núñez Larios, Alex Orlovsky

Eligible Titles (Alphabetized)**

2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (producers)

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.

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The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.