Final Oscar Predictions: ‘Oppenheimer’ Projected to Receive Most Nominations With 13, Netflix to Lead for All Studios With 21
Universal Pictures / Warner Bros / Apple Original Films / Searchlight Pictures
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
Awards Circuit Column: Jan. 18, 2024: Oscar nominations are upon us: Expect the unexpected.
Every year, Oscar voters prove awards prognosticating is more of an art than a science. There’s al – ways someone whose morning is ruined when noms are announced, and a fair number who didn’t expect to be popping Champagne. So what surprises are in store?
I predict there could be four movies earning more than 10 nominations each: “Barbie” (11), “Killers of the Flower Moon” (10), “Oppenheimer” (13) and “Poor Things” (9-10), marking the second time that many films have surpassed double digits in one year. The first was in 2019, when “The Irishman,” “Joker,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” and “1917” achieved the feat. Interestingly, all lost best picture to “Para – site,” the first non-English language victor. Does that bode well for the French drama “Anatomy of a Fall”?
Alexander Payne’s heartwarmer “The Holdovers” is likely to have a good morning, with acting front – runners Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph earning nods.
However, this is the Oscars, so there will be surprises. One shocker may see Michael Mann’s racing epic “Ferrari” crossing the best picture lineup. The Academy might also pepper some “Saltburn” among its picks, particularly in the screenplay category, where Emerald Fennell’s acidic portrait of high society should resonate.
Some actors’ phones might not be ringing with congratulatory calls. Bradley Cooper’s portrayal of Leonard Bernstein in “Maestro” has been well received. However, given Cooper’s jobs as director, producer and writer on the biopic, some members view his movie as “a vanity project.” In a stacked lead actor race, he could find himself more vulnerable than people think.
Projected studio tally: Netflix (21), Universal Pictures (14), Apple Original Films, Searchlight Pictures and Warner Bros. (11)
Our final predictions are below.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
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Best Picture
![Past Lives]()
Image Credit: Jon Pack “American Fiction” (MGM)
Cord Jefferson, Jermaine Johnson, Nikos Karamigios, Ben LeClair
“Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi
“Maestro“ (Netflix)
Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
“Past Lives” (A24)
David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Ewa Puszczynska, James WilsonAlternate: “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
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Director
![L to R: Emily Blunt (as Kitty Oppenheimer) with writer, director, and producer Christopher Nolan and Cillian Murphy (as J. Robert Oppenheimer) on the set of OPPENHEIMER.]()
Image Credit: Melinda Sue Gordon -
Actor in a Leading Role
![Rustin]()
Image Credit: David Lee/Netflix © 2022 -
Actress in a Leading Role
![BARBIE, Margot Robbie as Barbie, 2023. © Warner Bos. /Courtesy Everett Collection]()
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C -
Actor in a Supporting Role
![THE HOLDOVERS, Dominic Sessa, 2023. © Focus Features /Courtesy Everett Collection]()
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection -
Actress in a Supporting Role
![May December - Julianne Moore]()
Image Credit: Netflix -
Original Screenplay
![jacob elordi saltburn bath water]()
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Adapted Screenplay
![]()
Image Credit: Courtesy of Apple “American Fiction” (MGM)
Cord Jefferson (based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.) ***
Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach (based on ‘Barbie’ by Mattel)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Christopher Nolan (based on “American Prometheus” by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Tony McNamara (based on the book by Alasdair Gray)Alternate: “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
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Animated Feature
![teenage mutant ninja turtles mutant mayhem]()
Image Credit: Everett Collection “The Boy and the Heron” (GKids/Toho)
Hayao Miyazaki (director), Toshio Suzuki (producer)
“Elemental” (Pixar)
Peter Sohn, Denise Ream
“Nimona” (Netflix)
Nick Bruno, Troy Quane (directors), Roy Lee, Karen Ann Ryan (producers)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) ***
Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg, Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson
“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures)
Jeff Rowe (director), Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Kevin Eastman (producers)Alternate: “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (Netflix)
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Production Design
![]()
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.) ***
Sarah Greenwood (production designer), Katie Spencer (set decorator)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Jack Fisk (production designer), Adam Willis (set decorator)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Kevin Thompson (production designer), Rena DeAngelo (set decorator)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Ruth De Jong (production designer), Claire Kaufman (set decorator)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Shona Heath, James Price (production designer), Szusza Mihalek (set decorator)Alternate: “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
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Cinematography
![EL CONDE, (aka THE COUNT), Jaime Vadell, 2023. ph: Pablo Larrain /© Netflix /Courtesy Everett Collection]()
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection -
Costume Design
![Napoleon]()
Image Credit: Courtesy of Apple -
Film Editing
![how to watch anatomy of a fall online]()
Image Credit: Courtesy of Neon -
Makeup and Hairstyling
![THE LAST VOYAGE OF THE DEMETER, from left: Liam Cunningham, Chris Walley, Corey Hawkins, 2023. ph: Rainer Bajo / © Universal Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection]()
Image Credit: ©Universal/Courtesy Everett Col “Golda” (Bleecker Street)
Karen Hartley Thomas
“The Last Voyage of the Demeter” (Universal Pictures)
Heike Merker (make-up and hair designer)
“Maestro” (Netflix) ***
Kazu Hiro, Sian Grigg, Kay Georgiou, Lori McCoy-Bell
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Luisa Abel (head of makeup and prosthetic department), Jason Hamer (prosthetics), Jaime Leigh McIntosh (head of hair department), Ahou Mofid (key hair stylist)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Nadia Stacey, Mark Couler, Josh WestonAlternate: “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
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Sound
![FERRARI, front, from left: Adam Driver as Enzo Ferrari, Gabriel Leone, 2023. ph: Lorenzo Sisti / © Neon / Courtesy Everett Collection]()
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Nina Rice, Ai-Ling Lee, Dan Kenyon, Kevin O’Connell
“Ferrari” (Neon)
Tony Lamberti (re-recording mixer, supervising sound editor), Andy Nelson (re-recording mixer), Lee Orloff (production sound mixer), Bernard Weiser (supervising sound editor)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Steve Morrow
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Richard King (sound designer, supervising sound editor), Gary A. Rizzo (re-recording mixer), Kevin O’Connell (re-recording mixer), Willie Burton (production sound mixer)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Johnnie Burn (supervising sound editor, re-recording mixer), Tarn Willers (production sound mixer)Alternate: “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
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Visual Effects
![The Creator]()
Image Credit: Courtesy of 20th Century Studios “The Creator” (20th Century Studios) ***
Jay Cooper, Ian Comley (visual effects supervisors), Andrew Roberts (on set visual effects supervisor), Neil Corbould (supervising special effects supervisor)
“Godzilla: Minus One” (Toho)
Kiyoko Shibuya, Takashi Yamazaki (visual effects supervisors)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Simon Hughes (creative director)
“Society of the Snow” (Netflix)
Laura Pedro (visual effects supervisor), Felix Bergés (visual effects supervisor), Pau Costa (special effects supervisor)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Michael Lasker, Alan Hawkins, Bret St. Clair, Pav GrocholaAlternate: “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
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Original Score
![American Fiction]()
Image Credit: MGM -
Original Song
![FLAMIN' HOT, from left: Jesse Garcia, Annie Gonzalez, Hunter Jones, 2023. ph: Emily Aragones / © Searchlight Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection]()
Image Credit: ©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection “American Symphony” (Netflix)
“It Never Went Away” by Jon Batiste, Dan Wilson
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.) ***
“What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell
“Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
“The Fire Inside” by Diane Warren
“Rustin” (Netflix)
“Road to Freedom” by Lenny KravitzAlternate: “Dance the Night” from “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
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Documentary Feature
![20 Days in Mariupol]()
Image Credit: PBS “American Symphony” (Netflix) ***
Matthew Heineman (director, producer), Lauren Domino, Joedan Okun (producers)
“Beyond Utopia” (Roadside Attractions)
Madeleine Gavin (director), Rachel Cohen, Jana Edelbaum, Sue Mi Terry (producers)
“Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy” (Zeitgeist Films)
Nancy Buirski (director, producer), Simon Kilmurry, Susan Margolin (producers)
“To Kill a Tiger” (National Film Board of Canada, NFB) — Nisha Pahuja (director, producer), David Oppenheim, Cornelia Principe (producers)
“20 Days in Mariupol” (PBS)
Mstyslav Chernov (director, producer), Derl McCrudden, Michelle Mizner (producers)Alternate: “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple Original Films)
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International Feature
![Society of the Snow]()
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix “Society of the Snow” from Spain (Netflix)
dir. J.A. Bayona
“The Taste of Things” from France (IFC Films)
dir. Trần Anh Hùng
“The Teachers’ Lounge” from Germany (Sony Pictures Classics)
dir. İlker Çatak
“20 Days in Mariupol” from Ukraine (PBS)
dir. Mstyslav Chernov
“The Zone of Interest” from United Kingdom (A24) ***
dir. Jonathan GlazerAlternate: “Perfect Days” (Japan) — dir. Wim Wenders
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Animated Short
![War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko]()
Image Credit: ElectroLeague “Humo (Smoke)” (3rd Street)
Rita Basulto (director), Mariana Méndez Alejandre, Angelica Lares, Juan J. Medina, Marc Pannia (producers)
“Letter to a Pig” (Miyu Distribution)
Tal Kantor (director), Pierre Baussaron, Amit R. Gicelter, Emmanuel-Alain Raynal (producers)
“Once Upon a Studio” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***
Dan Abraham, Trent Correy (directors), Yvett Merino, Brad Simonsen (producers)
“Pete” (The Criterion Channel)
Bret ‘Brook’ Parker (director), Jake Kaplan (producer)
“War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” (ElectroLeague)
Dave Mullins (director), Brad Booker, Sophie Cherry (producers)Alternate: “Boom”
Oscars category page with rankings>>>coming soon
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Documentary Short
![Nai Nai WaiPo]()
Image Credit: Courtesy Image “The ABCs of Book Banning” (MTV Documentary Films/Paramount+)
Trish Adlesic, Nazenet Habtezghi (directors), Sheila Nevins (director, producer)
“Camp Courage” (Netflix)
Max Lowe (director, producer), Katu Chevigny, Marilyn Ness (producers)
“Deciding Vote” (The New Yorker)
Robert J. Lyons, Jeremy Workman (directors, producers), Melissa Jacobsen (producer)
“The Last Repair Shop” (L.A. Times Studios/Searchlight Pictures) ***
Kris Bowers, Ben Proudfoot (directors, producers), Jeremy Lambert, Josh Rosenberg (producers)
“Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Sean Wang (director), Sam A. Davis (producer)Alternate: “The Barber of Little Rock”
Oscars category page with rankings>>>coming soon
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Live Action Short
![Strange Way of Life]()
Image Credit: Credit: El Deseo “The After” (Netflix)
Misan Harriman (director), Nicky Bentham, David Oyelowo (producers)
“The Anne Frank Gift Shop” (Reboot Studios)
Mickey Rapkin (director), Noam Dromi, Greg Zekowski (producers)
“The Shepherd” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Iain Softley (director), Alfonso Cuarón, Richard Johns, Bill Kenwright, Gabriela Rodriguez (producers)
“Strange Way of Life” (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
Pedro Almodóvar (director), Agustín Almodóvar, Esther García (producers)
“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” (Netflix)
Wes Anderson (director, producer), Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales (producers)Alternate: “Red, White and Blue”
Oscars category page with rankings>>>coming soon
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Film Columns and Podcast Archives
![Ke Huy Quan Variety Cover Story Oscars]()
Image Credit: Andrew Eccles for Variety AWARDS CIRCUIT TV COLUMNS, FEATURES & EXCLUSIVES
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- How Greta Gerwig’s Billion Dollar ‘Barbie’ Could be First Box Office Champion Oscars Winner Since ‘The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King’
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- ‘All of Us Strangers’ Makes Andrew Scott an Oscar-Worthy Leading Man
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- Alexander Payne’s ‘The Holdovers’ Releases Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph Onto the Awards Scene
- Barry Keoghan’s Naked Dancing and Bathtub Slurping in ‘Saltburn’ Will Push Oscar Voters’ Limits
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Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
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