Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.
The deaths of two House Democrats early in the 119th Congress, combined with the Senate holding out on confirming Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, is yielding a temporary increase in the size of Speaker Mike Johnson’s razor-thin majority.
The death a week ago of Arizona Rep. Raúl M. Grijalva opened a Democratic stronghold based in Tucson, but under state law, the special election called by Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs won’t take place until Sept. 23, with a special primary set for July 15.
And then there are a pair of Florida special elections scheduled for April 1 to fill the seat that Republican Mike Waltz vacated to become President Donald Trump’s national security adviser and the Panhandle seat that was never filled after GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz resigned shortly after winning a fifth term. Republicans Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis, respectively, are on track to win those two seats.
Axios identified April 2 as the date Stefanik’s confirmation would move forward, citing multiple sources. Several senior Senate GOP sources wouldn’t confirm that timing, but it would make sense.
“Congresswoman Stefanik is a great ally to President Trump, and we look forward to her confirmation as the next ambassador to the United Nations,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in an emailed statement Wednesday in response to a question about the timing.
As our friend Jacob Rubashkin from Inside Elections observed, an April 2 resignation from the House would likely trigger a July special election for the seat based in New York’s North Country, with Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul currently having limited flexibility under state law. (Last month, Democrats in the state Legislature opted not to move forward on legislation that would allow Hochul to delay a special election.)
Meanwhile in Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has no similar legal guardrails, and he seems to be in no hurry to call a special election to fill the seat left behind by freshman Democrat Sylvester Turner, the former Houston mayor who died on March 5, just over two months after being sworn in to the seat of the late Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee.
Several Democrats have already entered the race for that safely blue seat. They include Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee, who has the backing of former Rep. Erica Carter Lee, the daughter of the late congresswoman who won a November special election to serve out the remainder of her mother’s term; former Houston City Council Member Amanda Edwards, who unsuccessfully challenged Jackson Lee in the primary last year; and former Jackson Lee aide Isaiah Martin, who briefly sought the seat last cycle.
Starting gate
Complicating the map: More than two dozen House members are contemplating runs for Senate or governor, and their ambitions could jeopardize both Republican and Democratic hopes of winning the House majority next year.
More midterm mapping: The National Republican Congressional Committee named 26 House Democrats it plans to target in next year’s elections. There’s significant overlap between the lawmakers on this initial target list and those whom House Democrats identify as their most embattled incumbents.
Retreat roundup: Before heading back to their districts late last week, House Democrats met in Leesburg, Va., for their annual retreat, and many expressed confidence in their odds of winning control of the chamber next year. Multiple lawmakers said Trump voters in their districts didn’t support the current disruption unleashed by the president’s actions but instead wanted to see their costs go down.
Podcast pitch: If you’re looking for a podcast to listen to, Mary Ellen joined budget tracker David Lerman on the CQ Budget podcast this week, talking about how Democrats are handling the political fallout of last week’s vote on a six-month continuing resolution.
Icons of Congress remembered: Tributes poured in over the past week after the deaths of Grijalva, who spent a decade helping to lead the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and two other longtime Capitol Hill giants: former Wyoming Republican Sen. Alan K. Simpson and former New York Democratic Rep. Nita M. Lowey. Simpson served as the Senate GOP whip and later co-chaired the bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, while Lowey was the first woman to lead the House Appropriations Committee.
ICYMI
#LASEN: Louisiana Rep. Clay Higgins said Thursday he won’t run for Senate next year but predicted that Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy’s “service to our Nation within the Senate seems to have soon reached its conclusion.” Higgins did not endorse Cassidy challenger John Fleming, the current state treasurer and a former congressman, but said a “MAGA America First Republican candidate will emerge.” Cassidy has drawn the ire of MAGA proponents over his vote to convict Trump at his 2021 impeachment trial.
Endorsement tracker: BOLD PAC, the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, endorsed Democrat Marlene Galán-Woods, who is challenging GOP Rep. David Schweikert in Arizona’s 1st District. The former broadcast journalist, who is Cuban American, ran for the seat last cycle and finished third in the primary.
Candidates considering: Michigan Republican Tudor Dixon, who lost the 2022 governor’s race to Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer, says she’s considering bids for both governor and Senate next year. Whitmer is barred from seeking a third term next year, while Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ retirement has opened up a Senate seat in the swing state. In New Hampshire, former Republican Gov. Chris Sununu said he expects to make a decision on running for Senate in the “next few weeks,” adding that he’d expect to have Trump’s support if he runs.
Targeted races: 314 Action, which supports Democratic candidates with backgrounds in medicine and science, is targeting 28 House Republicans in competitive districts.
New role for veep: Vice President JD Vance is the new finance chair of the Republican National Committee, marking the first time that a sitting vice president will serve in the position. Vance said his focus will be to “fully enact the MAGA mandate and President Trump’s vision” and help build the necessary war chest to “keep and grow our Republican majorities in 2026.”
Everything’s on the table: Dan Osborn, the former union leader from Omaha who waged an independent run against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024, said he’s considering his options for the midterms. Osborn told the Nebraska Examiner that he’s weighing runs for the House, the Senate and governor.
Electing justices: Kansas voters will decide next year whether to change the way state Supreme Court justices are chosen after the GOP-led Legislature placed a question on the 2026 ballot. If voters approve the change, the Sunflower State could join Wisconsin and other states where high court elections have turned into “partisan, money-fueled brawls” and provide abortion opponents with another mechanism to restrict access, The Kansas City Star reports.
Spotlight on education: At a time when Trump is planning to wind down operations at the Department of Education, a new poll suggests voters are seeking more government oversight of colleges and universities. The poll, commissioned by Arnold Ventures, found that 61 percent of Republican, Democratic and unaffiliated voters said higher education needs major changes or a complete overhaul and more than three-quarters said federal and state governments should evaluate and disclose the value of college degrees.
Nathan’s notes
Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections looks at two recent developments that could have implications for the 2026 midterms.
Democratic vacancies in the House may give Republicans some temporary breathing room on tough votes, but they shouldn’t take their majority for granted, Nathan writes. And while the Democratic brand has taken a beating of late, he argues that doesn’t necessarily preclude the party from winning the House next year.
What we’re reading
The Kennedy code: Politics has ripped apart many American families, and the Kennedys are no exception. The Boston Globe examines how members of the Democratic dynasty are navigating the Trump era, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. serving in a Republican Cabinet and several of his cousins voicing criticism of his agenda.
Texas battle: Punchbowl talked with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and the takeaway is that he appears to be laying the groundwork for a potential primary challenge to Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who has the backing of the NRSC.
Schumer watch: This week’s recess book tour by Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer isn’t going as planned. Perhaps that was inevitable with a government funding deadline landing just ahead of the scheduled recess — meaning the New York Democrat would have infuriated at least part of his constituency no matter what. But his vote to advance the Republican-drafted stopgap spending measure has caused a stir in some unusual places, like Prince George’s County, Md., where HuffPost reports that Democratic Rep. Glenn Ivey said he thought Schumer should be out of leadership.
Lifting up men: Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, a Democrat who frequently winds up on lists of likely 2028 presidential contenders, has launched an initiative focused on men and boys. Citing “clear and deeply disturbing data,” Moore directed his Cabinet secretaries to devise plans to address male loneliness and addiction, the academic struggles of boys and other social issues. The effort comes as polls show young men moving to the right politically, but Moore told The Washingtonian the shift wasn’t the motivation for his plan.
Winning back voters: Colorado Rep. Jason Crow, who was recently named a DCCC recruitment co-chair, is focused on how his party can win back working-class voters. In a profile for The New York Times opinion section, Crow said Democrats need to ease into talking about policy. “That’s not the way you build trust — you know, start waving around our 21-point plans. You’ll immediately be shut out. You have to sit down and ask about people’s lives,” he said.
The count: $10 million
That’s how much Florida Democrat Josh Weil said in a Thursday press release that he’s raised so far in his uphill bid to flip the state’s 6th District in the April 1 special election.
Weil is vying against GOP state Sen. Randy Fine to fill the seat vacated by Republican Mike Waltz, who is now Trump’s national security adviser.
The substantial haul could be seen as a measure of nationwide Democratic voters’ response to Trump’s second term so far. There’s precedent: In the two years after Trump’s first election in 2016, House Democratic candidates outraised their Republican counterparts in seven of nine partisan special elections — by a collective margin of $35.7 million — right before riding a “blue wave” back into control of the chamber in the 2018 midterms.
While Weil’s impressive total might bode well for Democrats’ larger prospects in 2026, a win by the public school teacher would nonetheless land in “miracle” territory. Less than five months ago, Trump carried the east-central Florida district, which includes Daytona Beach, by 30 points, while Waltz won a fourth term by 33 points.
And about the seven special elections in the 2017-18 cycle where Democrats outraised Republicans? While Democrats improved their margins in many of those races, they flipped only one seat in Pennsylvania, where Democrat Conor Lamb outspent his GOP opponent 4-to-1 and won by 627 votes in a district that Trump had carried by 20 points.
— By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Coming up
Early voting for the pair of April 1 special elections in Florida begins Saturday and runs for a week. Republicans Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine are the overwhelming favorites to win in the 1st and 6th districts, respectively.
Photo finish
Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.