The New Orleans Saints control the fate of the NFC South this weekend. It’s pretty simple: win and Tampa’s in. Lose and Atlanta could sneak in with a win. While they have no way of getting in, the Saints will have a say in who wins the South (it’s also pretty funny to think that Falcons fans have to root for the Saints this week).
The Saints defense just hasn’t been very good this year. They haven’t lived up to the standard they set the past 5+ seasons, and now they get a Buccaneers offense that has scored 20+ points in 13 straight games, and they’re desperate for a win this Sunday.
Led by Baker Mayfield, the Bucs offense ranks fourth in the NFL in points per game (29.7), trailing only Detroit, Buffalo and Baltimore. Mayfield has proven to be a perfect fit for the Bucs offense and is having one of his best seasons as a pro, throwing for 4,279 yards (career-high), 39 touchdowns (career-high) and 15 picks behind a 71.7% completion percentage (career-high), and that’s with Mike Evans missing a few games and Chris Godwin going out for the season.
Mike Evans is still the top guy in Tampa, but he’s at risk of losing his 1,000-yard season streak. He currently sits at 915 yards, needing 85 more to hit the 1,000-yard mark for the 11th straight season. I’m sure Mike Evans is very glad that the Saints shipped Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders, because if he was playing, the streak would be as good as snapped.
After Evans, rookie WR Jalan McMillan has emerged as Baker’s second favorite option. He’s been targeted 52 times, catching 32 of them for 387 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s hit the 50-yard receiving mark in each of his last four games while scoring at least on touchdown in all of them.
The Buccaneers had a pretty poor running game early in the season with Rachaad White, but their fourth-round pick Bucky Irving has really come along nicely and has given them one of the best rushing attacks in the league. They average 147 yards per game on the ground (4th), and Irving has been the guy making it happen. He has 1,033 yards and seven touchdowns behind a 5.5 average this season. Behind him, White has 613 yards and three touchdowns on a 4.3 average.
One area the Bucs offense can be exposed is in pass protection. They give up nearly three sacks per game, but that still hasn’t detoured Mayfield from having his best season in the NFL. Since their eight sack performance against Washington a few weeks ago, the Saints have totaled just one sack in their last two games. They’ll need their pass rushers to have a big day against Tampa if they want to end the season with a win.
Overall, this is going to be a very tough challenge for the Saints defense. The Bucs are on fire right now, and they have the added motivation of playing for a playoff spot. Plus, they know that if they lose, Atlanta can’t make it. Not saying they’re going to purposefully lose, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
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