The San Diego Padres’ season loosely followed the same trajectory as veteran starting pitcher Joe Musgrove.
Beginning with his outstanding return from an elbow injury in the Padres’ win against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Aug. 12, the Padres had the third-best record (26-16) in the National League until the end of the regular season. That allowed them to clinch the league’s top Wild Card berth with relative ease.
Musgrove went 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA in his nine starts during that time; six of the 12 earned runs were allowed in a single game against San Francisco. In the other eight games, he had a 1.17 ERA — good enough to earn the starting assignment in Game 2 of the Wild Card series.
The veteran right-hander delivered, allowing only one hit and one run, walking none, and striking out four in the Padres’ 5-4 victory. But while his teammates celebrated with champagne in a raucous clubhouse, a somber Musgrove conceded he might have pitched his final game of the season.
More news: MLB Playoffs: Padres-Dodgers Series Could Hinge on One Key Injury
“I don’t know what the future looks like for me right now,” Musgrove said, via the San Diego Union-Tribune, “but I know I’m going to give it every chance I have and I’ll do whatever I have to do to get back in here at some point.”
Friday, the Padres were ready to end the suspense: Musgrove will not be on the team’s roster for the NLDS when it begins Saturday in Los Angeles.
Mike Shildt said Joe Musgrove will not pitch in the NLDS.
“He’ll be with us in our hearts, but he won’t be on the mound,” Shildt said.#Padres
— Annie Heilbrunn (@annieheilbrunn) October 4, 2024
Manager Mike Shildt made the announcement in a press conference Friday at Dodger Stadium.
“He’ll be with us in our hearts, but he won’t be on the mound,” Shildt said.
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers had slightly better odds (54.3 percent to 46.7) in the series. But those odds assumed Musgrove would start Game 4, giving the Padres a 51.9 percent chance to win that game. The Dodgers were already projected to win Games 1, 2, and 5 at home, and losing Musgrove should only further their chances.
Elbow injuries are a minor nuisance for pitchers in the best-case scenario. Given that Musgrove missed 11 weeks with an elbow injury earlier this season, it’s difficult to assume the best-case scenario for the 31-year-old.
Shildt was not willing to speculate about Musgrove’s availability for the remainder of the postseason Friday.
Joe Musgrove will not participate in the NLDS, Mike Shildt said. He wouldn’t speculate beyond that.
— AJ Cassavell (@AJCassavell) October 4, 2024
The Padres will start Dylan Cease in Game 1 on Saturday in Los Angeles and Yu Darvish in Game 2. Michael King is all but certain to start Game 3 on Monday in San Diego.
If the series gets to four games, trade deadline acquisition Martin Perez could become the only left-handed starter the Dodgers see in the series.
Perez, 33, went 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA in his first nine starts following the trade. Then, in his final regular-season start, he was rocked for six runs in 3.2 innings on Sept. 29 in Arizona.
In 26 games with the Pirates and Padres, Perez went 5-6 with a 4.53 ERA. He’s 90-87 with a 4.44 ERA in 13 major league seasons with the Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, Pirates, and Padres.
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