This week, the New Orleans Saints head into enemy territory as they face the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4 of the 2024 regular season. Tre’Shon Diaz of The Falcoholic joins us to preview Sunday’s showdown between one of the league’s most heated division rivalries.
NJ: In your opinion, how has QB Kirk Cousins looked in his return from season-ending Achilles surgery? Does he seem capable of leading Atlanta to the promised land? If not, how soon should first-round NFL Draft pick Michael Penix Jr. take over as the team’s starting QB?
TD: I expected Cousins to have a slower start after coming off the significant injury, and that’s what we’ve seen. Each week, he’s knocked a layer of rust off, and most of it has appeared to be mental, not physical. People attributed his Week 1 shakiness to health, but the real issue was TJ Watt being in his lap the entire game.
At this point, he has taken care of it. Cousins has enough left in the tank to get this roster to the playoffs, so I won’t anticipate seeing Penix until 2025 or 2026.
NJ: With Atlanta set to be missing two starters on the offensive line—RT Kaleb McGary (sprained MCL, day-to-day) and C Drew Dalman (high ankle sprain, IR)—are you concerned about the Falcons’ ability to contain the Saints’ revitalized pass rush? New Orleans is currently tied for fourth in the league with 11 team sacks.
TD: There’s still a chance McGary plays this Sunday, but regardless of health, I would still be concerned. The defense has had an abundance of opportunities to rush the passer due to the position their opponents have been in, and they’ve been capitalizing on them. Ryan Neuzil filled in for Dalmn last year and did well until running into the Saints. Storm Norton also filled in for Kaleb McGary in 2023 and clamped rookie sensation Will Anderson, but he was up and down in his other outings.
Last week, the line adjusted well by the fourth quarter, and I think with a week of preparation, they’ll be able to devise a game-plan to protect Cousins.
NJ: Atlanta is 6 of 27 on third down conversions to open the season. What do you believe is the cause of this—coaching or execution? Do you think things will change against New Orleans?
TD: It’s a combination of both. There have been drops and other execution errors for plays that had potential. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has also put the team in bad positions. With only a three-game sample size, I’m not panicking yet, but there is a healthy level of concern.
Things have to change against the Saints, and Robinson has shown the ability to adjust and has improved week to week as a play-caller. However, there will still be growing pains with the rookie coordinator.
NJ: It’s clear that many fans are still upset about New Orleans failing to land All-Pro safety Justin Simmons, especially after Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert recorded 170 receiving yards on 10 receptions against the Saints on Sunday. With that being said, has the superstar tandem of Simmons and Jessie Bates III been as lethal as advertised for the Falcons secondary?
TD: Per PFF, in 101 coverage snaps this season, Simmons has 16 yards allowed, one interception, and one forced incompletion while allowing a 6.3 passer rating when targeted. Jessie Bates was the NFC Player of the Week after his performance against the Philadelphia Eagles, which included a game-winning interception.
The duo has been everything the team has hoped for. They’ve allowed defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake and head coach Raheem Morris to bring over their zone-heavy scheme from Los Angeles. The duo has also helped cover up a subpar pass rush through coverage sacks.
NJ: According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Falcons (-120) are currently 1.5-point favorites over the Saints (+102) in Sunday’s matchup; who do you think will come out on top, and what is your final score prediction?
TD: Derek Carr will have a long day trying to push the ball down the field with Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates looming in the secondary; we may even see another pick-six. I think Bijan Robinson will continue his dominance in this series, and Atlanta will win 21-17.
Thank you again to Tre’Shon Diaz for joining us this week! You can check out the rest of his work here.
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