Oscar Predictions: Best Picture — Fall Festivals Kick Off Early Awards Buzz for ‘Blitz,’ ‘Joker 2’ and ‘Maria’

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture

Ralph Fiennes stars as Cardinal Lawrence in director Edward Berger’s CONCLAVE, a Focus Features release. Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features. © 2024 All Rights Reserved.
Courtesy of Focus Features. © 2

Weekly Commentary (Updated July 27, 2024): The early buzz for possible awards contenders has begun.

Venice Film Festival revealed its lineup with a star-studded affair with the world premieres of Todd Phillips’ “Joker: Folie à Deux,” Pablo Larraín’s “Maria” and Luca Guadgnino’s “Queer,” all hoping to make a solid first impression on the international circuit.

In Toronto, the slate is headlined with films by Mike Leigh (“Hard Truths”), Ron Howard (“Eden”), and John Crowley (“We Live in Time”). In addition, Oscar-winning editor William Goldenberg is making his directorial debut with “Unstoppable” starring Jharrel Jerome and Jennifer Lopez, which could be a commercial awards play.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

Telluride doesn’t release its lineup until the day before the fest begins on Aug. 30. Still, Variety has pointed to the potential strong lineup based on the film’s classifications at other festivals. Among those, it will include the world premieres of possible contenders such as Edward Berger’s “Conclave,” RaMell Ross’ “Nickel Boys,” Morgan Neville’s “Piece by Piece,” and Joshua Oppenheimer’s “The End.” In addition, replays from Cannes could also get their bows stateside, including Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez.”

We also got a first look at James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown,” with confirmation that it will be dropping in December but avoiding the fall festival circuit. Watch out for the movie to potentially crash the awards season significantly, especially with star and producer Timothée Chalamet supporting the project.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

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