Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Courtesy of Alison Cohen Rosa/HBO
Weekly Commentary (Updated: June 17, 2024): In 2022, the TV Academy had a record in supporting drama actor submissions with 436. Coming off of 2023’s 346 names, we find ourselves sitting with 217 contenders in the awards discussion, compared to supporting drama actress with 196. That will deliver seven nominees in each category.
Both categories have multiple candidates from the same shows, such as “The Crown” (Khalid Abdalla, Salim Daw, Jonathan Pryce, Elizabeth Debicki, Lesley Manville, Olivia Williams) and “The Morning Show” (Billy Crudup, Mark Duplass, Jon Hamm, Greta Lee, Audra McDonald, Julianna Margulies, Holland Taylor and Karen Pittman). Let’s not forget the largest ensemble ever to garner a SAG nomination, HBO’s period drama “The Gilded Age,” which had planned on submitting 13 supporting players but ended up with only five on the ballot (Ben Ahlers, Nathan Lane, Robert Sean Leonard, Blake Ritson and John Douglas Thompson).
FX’s “Shо̄gun” has an embarrassment of riches led by Tadanobu Asano and the possibility for two of his co-stars to come in alongside him, Takehiro Hira and Tokuma Nishioka. We’ll see if the TV Academy really loves the epic series.
Could there be room for a few surprises? Of course, it’s the Emmys. Watch out for Benedict Wong from Netflix’s “3 Body Problem” or Jack Lowden from “Slow Horses,” who could come in with his leading co-star Gary Oldman.
Nominations-round voting is open from June 13 and closes on June 24 at 10:00 p.m. PT. Voting for peer group-specific top ten round panels (if applicable) takes place between June 28 and July 8. The Emmy nominations will be announced on July 17. The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will occur over two nights on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
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Image Credit: Netflix And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer and Series 1 Tadanobu Asano — “Shōgun” (FX) 2 Billy Crudup — “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+) 3 Jon Hamm — “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+) 4 Jonathan Pryce — “The Crown” (Netflix) 5 Nathan Lane — “The Gilded Age” (Max) 6 Khalid Abdalla — “The Crown” (Netflix) 7 Takehiro Hira — “Shōgun” (FX) Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series -
Image Credit: Lucasfilm Next in Line
Rank Performer and Series 8 Ke Huy Quan — “Loki” (Disney+) 9 Mark Duplass — “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+) 10 Benedict Wong — “3 Body Problem” (Netflix) 11 Tokuma Nishioka — “Shōgun” (FX) 12 Salim Daw — “The Crown” (Netflix) 13 Benny Safdie — “The Curse” (Showtime) 14 Hayden Christiansen — “Ahsoka” (Disney+) 15 Jack Lowden — “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+) Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series -
Image Credit: Prime Video Also in Contention
Rank Performer and Series 16 Liam Cunningham — “3 Body Problem” (Netflix) 17 Owen Wilson — “Loki” (Disney+) 18 Wendell Pierce — “Elsbeth” (CBS) 19 Robert Sean Leonard — “The Gilded Age” (Max) 20 Aaron Moten — “Fallout” (Prime Video) 21 Moisés Arias — “Fallout” (Prime Video) 22 John Ortiz — “The Green Veil” (The Network) 23 Jason Clarke — “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max) 24 Michael Chiklis — “Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max) 25 Bradley Whitford — “Parish” (AMC) Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series -
Eligible Performers (Supporting Drama Actor)
Image Credit: COURTESY OF NETFLIX **Officially submitted and on the Emmy nominations ballot.
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More Information (Supporting Drama Actor)
Image Credit: Gareth Gatrell / Marvel Studios 2023 category winner: Matthew Macfadyen as Tom — “Succession” (HBO) — Season 4
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Prediction Categories
2024 Primetime Emmy Prediction Categories About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.