Donald Trump Hit by Devastating Poll From Fox News

Donald Trump trailed President Joe Biden in a Fox News 2024 presidential poll for the first time since late last year.

A survey of 1,095 registered voters from the conservative news network showed that Biden is leading his presumptive Republican rival by two points (50 percent to 48 percent).

In a previous Fox News poll from May, Trump was leading Biden by one point (49 percent to 48 percent). The former president was also enjoying a five-point lead over Biden in March (50 percent to 45 percent), meaning there has been a significant swing in favor of the Democrat incumbent in the past three months.

The last time Biden beat Trump in a Fox News poll was in October 2023, when the president was ahead by 49 percent to 48 percent.

The Context

With less than five months to go until November’s election, polls have frequently suggested that the race between Biden and Trump will be neck-and-neck.

The June Fox News poll is the first one the network has conducted since Trump became the first U.S. president in history to be convicted of a crime. A jury found him guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in his historic hush money trial. Trump denied any wrongdoing and accused the investigation of being a politically motivated “witch hunt” that aimed to stop him winning the 2024 election.

Other factors Fox News suggests have contributed to Biden’s improvement in the polls are more voters considering the U.S. economy to be in “excellent or good” shape, and the president recently announcing tougher immigration policies.

What We Know

As well as leading in the direct matchup against Trump, Biden is ahead by one point (43 percent to 42 percent) when other 2024 White House hopefuls are introduced to the survey. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. came in third with 10 percent, and Cornel West and Jill Stein both getting 2 percent support.

In the previous Fox News survey, Trump was ahead of Biden by 43 percent to 40 percent when independent and third party candidates were added to the poll.

When the June results are broken down further, Biden received the support of 73 percent of Black voters. While this key demographic still heavily prefers the Democrat, this figure is way down from the 92 percent Biden was said to have received in support from Black voters during his 2020 election victory.

There has also been a nine-point swing from independent voters in favor of Biden compared to May’s Fox News poll.

Independent votes may end up being key to who wins the 2024 election, especially in the key swing states where the margin of victory could be very narrow.

Voters feeling better about the economy appear to be helping Biden. Some 32 percent said the economy is in excellent or good shape, the highest amount since Biden entered office in January 2021. The previous high was 30 percent, recorded in May and September 2021.

A total of 50 percent said they are getting ahead or holding steady financially, up 5 points since last summer. The polls shows 44 percent of voters also feel optimistic about the economy, up nine points compared to 2023.

The Fox News poll was conducted June 14-17 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research ® between 1,095 registered voters. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Views

Democrat Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys, said: “There is not a lot of movement in this poll since May, but it is enough to make this a welcome poll for Biden.

“The vote preference improvement is one thing, but perhaps more importantly, we saw notable erosion of Trump’s advantage on the economy and immigration, while Biden built on his advantages on abortion and health care. If voters don’t perceive Trump as significantly better on the economy and immigration, the rationale for returning him to office will become much murkier for some voters.”

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who also conducted the Fox News poll, said: “The underlying demographic tendencies that have defined the race remain in place.

“Biden has improved slightly with women and seniors, which keeps him afloat despite significant reductions from 2020 in support from younger voters and African Americans.”