Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Riley Keough and Suki Waterhouse harmonize in “Daisy Jones and the Six.”
Lacey Terrell/Prime Video
Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 3, 2023): As Amy, the Goop-inspired, plant-selling businesswoman, “Beef” star Ali Wong has never been better. Fresh off her first Emmy nomination for outstanding writing variety special for “Ali Wong: Don Wong” for Netflix, she made history as the first Asian nominated in the history of her category and only the second Asian woman in any Emmy-leading race. Her dark comedy is also one of only two shows — the other being “Succession” — nominated in every acting race. One of them must translate to a win. She has the best chance.
Suppose you watched Amazon Prime Video’s “Daisy Jones & the Six,” featuring the bombastic turn from star Riley Keough. In that case, it’s not hard to understand her deserved inclusion. Most prominent during the song “The River,” featured in episode eight, where you see the granddaughter of Elvis Presley, and the daughter of the late Lisa Marie, emptying her tank as an artist. Her sultry vocals and physical dominance could help her stake her claim to an Emmy statue.
Oscar winner Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) took home the limited/TV movie actress prize at the SAG (Screen Actors Guild) Awards, defying the odds against steamroller Amanda Seyfried, who won the Emmy last year in this category. Showtime’s miniseries premiered in December and remained part of the awards conversation. Her co-star Michael Shannon could be a packaged deal with voters.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
Dominique Fishback is superb in the dark Prime video thriller from creators Donald Glover and Janine Nabers. As Dre, a young woman who grows increasingly obsessed with a pop star, Fishback has shown the depth of her talent no matter the size of the role for some time. Best conveyed with her Oscar-snubbed performance in “Judas and the Black Messiah,” and what she brings to “The Deuce” and her work in last year’s “The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey.” She could be a potential spoiler.
In Hulu’s limited series, Kathryn Hahn plays Clare, a reimagined version of Cheryl Strayed from her memoir. A previous nominee for “WandaVision,” which many expected her to win, there’s a feeling she’s owed one for her wickedly moving performance. Does her surprise nom translate to a shocking win?
Lizzy Caplan was a double threat this past year on television with two major projects released. In FX’s moving drama, she plays Libby, an ex-Manhattanite struggling to accept her new identity as a suburban stay-at-home mom. The other was in Paramount+’s “Fatal Attraction,” taking on the iconic Glenn Close role. With seven noms for the show, including limited or anthology, she could be a presumed “consolation” prize for the acclaimed series.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
- H.E.R. — “Beauty and the Beast: A 30th Celebration” (ABC)
- Vera Farmiga — “Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+)
- Jennifer Garner — “The Last Thing He Told Me” (Apple TV+)
- Bellamy Young — “A Waltons Thanksgiving” (The CW)
- Amy Adams — “Disenchanted” (Disney+)
- Bette Midler — “Hocus Pocus 2” (Disney+)
- Sarah Jessica Parker — “Hocus Pocus 2” (Disney+)
- Iman Vellani — “Ms. Marvel” (Disney+)
- Lizzy Caplan — “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
- Gloria Estefan — “Father of the Bride” (HBO)
- Alicia Vikander — “Irma Vep” (HBO)
- Elizabeth Olsen — “Love & Death” (HBO)
- Sydney Sweeney — “Reality” (HBO)
- Keira Knightley — “Boston Strangler” (Hulu)
- Olivia Colman — “Great Expectations” (Hulu)
- Amber Midthunder — “Prey” (Hulu)
- Kathryn Hahn — “Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu)
- Cate Blanchett — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Liliane Rovère — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Harriet Walter — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- Bel Powley — “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
- Dolly Parton — “Dolly Parton’s Mountain Magic Christmas” (NBC)
- Ali Wong — “Beef” (Netflix)
- Essie Davis — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Kate Micucci — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
- Maya Hawke — “Do Revenge” (Netflix)
- Camila Mendes — “Do Revenge” (Netflix)
- Zoe Saldaña — “From Scratch” (Netflix)
- Paz Vega – “Kaleidoscope” (Netflix)
- Barrett Doss — “The Noel Diary” (Netflix)
- Gillian Jacobs — “Transatlantic” (Netflix)
- Naomi Watts — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
- Sophia Brown — “The Witcher: Blood Origin” (Netflix)
- Angourie Rice — “Honor Society” (Paramount+)
- Annette Bening — “Jerry and Marge Go Large” (Paramount+)
- Sophie Wilde — “Tom Jones: Masterpiece” (PBS)
- Kaley Cuoco — “Meet Cute” (Peacock)
- Joanne Froggatt — “Last Light” (Peacock)
- Betty Gilpin — “Mrs. Davis” (Peacock)
- Riley Keough — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
- Rachel Weisz — “Dead Ringers” (Prime Video)
- Emily Blunt — “The English” (Prime Video)
- Elsie Fisher — “My Best Friend’s Exorcism” (Prime Video)
- Amiah Miller — “My Best Friend’s Exorcism” (Prime Video)
- Allison Janney — “The People We Hate at the Wedding” (Prime Video)
- Jennifer Lopez — “Shotgun Wedding” (Prime Video)
- Alison Brie — “Somebody I Used to Know” (Prime Video)
- Zoey Deutch — “Something from Tiffany’s” (Prime Video)
- Dominique Fishback — “Swarm” (Prime Video)
- Jessica Chastain — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
** This official list and category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Amanda Seyfried, “The Dropout” (Hulu)
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.