Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Dec. 22, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Original Score
Harry Styles Don’t Worry Darling
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CATEGORY COMMENTARY: There were a few surprises with the announced Oscars shortlist for best original score.
The former winners in the running have the upper hand at the moment such as John Williams (“The Fabelmans”), Hildur Guðnadóttir (“Women Talking”) and Alexandre Desplat (“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”).
With 52 Oscar nominations, Williams is already the second most-nominated individual after Walt Disney (and the oldest living person), who had 59 nods. With some of the most notable and recognizable musical movie scores ever, Williams has won five Oscars over his impressive career: “Fiddler on the Roof” (1971), “Jaws” (1976), “Star Wars” (1977), “E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial” (1982) and “Schindler’s List” (1993). At 90, should he win, he would become the oldest winner in any competitive Oscar category, surpassing James Ivory, who was 89 when he won adapted screenplay for “Call Me by Your Name” (2017).
In contrast, former nominees like Terence Blanchard (“The Woman King”) and Carter Burwell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) have momentum that could bring either of them to the forefront.
Two women were included in the lineup: Chanda Dancy’s “Devotion,” who could be the first Black woman ever nominated in the category, and Guðnadóttir, who would be the first woman to win the category twice (winner for 2019’s “Joker”). This comes after the latter’s work from “Tár” was disqualified by the Academy.
“All Quiet on the Western Front” asserted itself as Netflix’s leading awards contender with its strong showing across the board, including Volker Bertelmann’s bombastic and tense musical chords. Nathan Johnson, the cousin to writer and director Rian Johnson, was able to make it onto the shortlist with “Glass Onion,” the sequel to “Knives Out.”
The composers also “branched” out (no pun intended) with names we initially suspected they would pass on such as Son Lux’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and Michael Abels’ “Nope.”
And then there are films like “Don’t Worry Darling” with John Powell on the ticket, whose career has produced only a single Oscar nod for “How to Train Your Dragon” (2011), despite worthy endeavors such as “Shrek” (2001) and “United 93” (2006). A second career mention could be possible.
It was disheartening not to see Michael Giacchino’s visceral “The Batman,” Emilie Levienaise-Farrouch’s beautiful “Living” and M.M. Keeravaani’s epic and upbeat “RRR” not be among the composers in the running. Still, other nods will hopefully come their way in the future.
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See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
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Kathryn Kendall (as Miramax Executive) in SHE SAID, directed by Maria Schrader.
Universal Pictures
| And The Predicted Nominees Are: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Film | Composer(s) | Distributor |
| 1 | “The Fabelmans” | John Williams | Universal Pictures |
| A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen. | |||
| 2 | “Women Talking” | Hildur Guðnadóttir | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men. | |||
| 3 | “The Woman King” | Terence Blanchard | Sony Pictures |
| A historical epic inspired by the true events that happened in The Kingdom of Dahomey, one of the most powerful states of Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries. | |||
| 4 | “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” | Alexandre Desplat | Netflix |
| A darker version of the classic children’s fairy tale of a wooden puppet that transforms into a real living boy. | |||
| 5 | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Carter Burwell | Searchlight Pictures |
| Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them. | |||
| Next in Line | |||
| 6 | “Babylon” | Justin Hurwitz | Paramount Pictures |
| Set in Hollywood during the transition from silent films to talkies, focusing on a mixture of historical & fictional characters. | |||
| 7 | “Devotion” | Chanda Dancy | Sony Pictures |
| A pair of U.S. Navy fighter pilots risk their lives during the Korean War and become some of the Navy’s most celebrated wingmen. |
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| 8 | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Ludwig Göransson | Marvel Studios |
| The people of Wakanda fight to protect their home from intervening world powers as they mourn the death of King T’Challa. | |||
| 9 | “Don’t Worry Darling” | John Powell | Warner Bros |
| A 1950s housewife living with her husband in a utopian experimental community begins to worry that his glamorous company could be hiding disturbing secrets. | |||
| 10 | “Nope” | Michael Abels | Universal Pictures |
| The residents of a lonely gulch in inland California bear witness to an uncanny and chilling discovery. | |||
| Other Top-Tier Contenders | |||
| 11 | “Everything Everywhere All at Once” | Son Lux | A24 |
| 12 | “All Quiet on the Western Front” | Volker Bertelmann | Netflix |
| 13 | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | Simon Franglen | 20th Century Studios |
| 14 | “She Said” | Nicholas Britell | Universal Pictures |
| 15 | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Nathan Johnson | Netflix |
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.
2022 category winner: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Hans Zimmer
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