Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Dec. 22, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actress
TAR, Cate Blanchett, from left: Nina Hoss, Cate Blanchett (back to camera), Noemie Merlant
©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: There’s momentum for Neon’s “Triangle of Sadness,” which won the Palme d’Or from the Cannes Film Festival. For her powerful turn as the toilet manager Abigail, relative unknown Dolly De Leon picked up a Golden Globe nod, which bodes well for her campaign. If she can sneak into the SAG lineup, the single mother of four children would be well on her way to the Dolby Theatre as an attendee. In addition, she’s one of the heartwarming stories of the season, not without some history being made as the first Filipina ever nominated. However, De Leon isn’t the only newcomer/unknown in the running.
Stephanie Hsu has the critics on her side for “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” topped off by a much-needed Critics Choice mention. Suppose she can ride in a wave of love for her multiverse dramedy. In that case, she could easily join her seemingly locked-in co-star Jamie Lee Curtis, who will pick up her first nod after a stunning career that should have a couple of Academy citations already (i.e., “A Fish Called Wanda,” “True Lies” and “Freaky Friday”).
Nina Hoss hopes to ride in with her leading actress co-star Cate Blanchett for “Tár,” who seem like potential BAFTA favorites from across the pond. If you’re unaware of Hoss’ greatness, watch either “Barbara” or “Phoenix” over the holiday break and see a fantastic German actor at the top of her craft.
Angela Bassett as Queen Ramonda in Marvel Studios’ BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
Eli Adé
And then there are the veterans and former Academy-nominated women angling for attention. As the Queen mother in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Angela Bassett may be the key to the superhero movie sneaking into the best picture field. One of four sequels in the running, the buzz surrounding Bassett is too big to ignore, and if you factor in its perfect showing on the Oscars shortlist, it’s all within arm’s reach. If she lands SAG (which we expect her to do), the history of Bassett becoming the first Marvel Cinematic Universe actor to receive an Oscar nod, will be inevitable.
We’ll see how much longer “Women Talking” can hold on after opening in theaters this weekend and if SAG can get on board with any fantastic actors from the movie after being shut out at the Globes. Jessie Buckley seems to be the consensus pick to make it if any could manage recognition.
Also being watched this weekend is Rian Johnson’s “Glass Onion” with its all-star ensemble. We’ll see if Janelle Monáe can continue the momentum after a high-profile win from the National Board of Review and a Critics Choice nod. They (Monáe goes by “they/them” pronouns) might face some vote-siphoning from her other standout co-stars Kate Hudson and Kathryn Hahn.
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
WOMEN TALKING, from left: Judith Ivey, Claire Foy, 2022. ph: Michael Gibson /© Orion Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection
©Orion Pictures Corp/Courtesy Everett Collection
| And The Predicted Nominees Are: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Name | Film | Distributor |
| 1 | Angela Bassett | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| The nation of Wakanda is pitted against intervening world powers as they mourn the loss of their king T’Challa. | |||
| 2 | Jamie Lee Curtis | “Everything Everywhere All at Once” | A24 |
| An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led. | |||
| 3 | Kerry Condon | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them. | |||
| 4 | Jessie Buckley | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men. |
|||
| 5 | Dolly De Leon | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon |
| A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island. | |||
| Next in Line | |||
| 6 | Carey Mulligan | “She Said” | Universal Pictures |
| New York Times reporters Megan Twohey and Jodi Kantor break one of the most important stories in a generation – a story that helped ignite a movement and shattered decades of silence around the subject of sexual assault in Hollywood. | |||
| 7 | Stephanie Hsu | “Everything Everywhere All at Once” | A24 |
| An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led. | |||
| 8 | Nina Hoss | “Tár” | Focus Features |
| Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra. | |||
| 9 | Janelle Monáe | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| Famed Southern detective Benoit Blanc travels to Greece for his latest case. | |||
| 10 | Gabrielle Union | “The Inspection” | A24 |
| A young, gay Black man, rejected by his mother and with few options for his future, decides to join the Marines, doing whatever it takes to succeed in a system that would cast him aside. | |||
| Other Top-Tier Contenders | |||
| 11 | Claire Foy | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| 12 | Keke Palmer | “Nope” | Universal Pictures |
| 13 | Laura Dern | “The Son” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| 14 | Hong Chau | “The Whale” | A24 |
| 15 | Judith Ivey | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| 16 | Kate Hudson | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story” | Netflix |
| 17 | Thuso Mbedu | “The Woman King” | Sony Pictures |
| 18 | Jean Smart | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| 19 | Olivia DeJonge | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| 20 | Mariana Treviño | “A Man Called Otto” | Sony Pictures |
| Also In Contention | |||
| 21 | Aimee Lou Wood | “Living” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| 22 | Lashana Lynch | “The Woman King” | Sony Pictures |
| 23 | Sadie Sink | “The Whale” | A24 |
| 24 | Charmaine Bingwa | “Emancipation” | Apple Original Films |
| 25 | Jennifer Ehle | “She Said” | Universal Pictures |
| 26 | Jennifer Connelly | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures |
| 27 | Anne Hathaway | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| 28 | Vanessa Kirby | “The Son” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| 29 | Whoopi Goldberg | “Till” | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
| 30 | Emma Corrin | “My Policeman” | Amazon Studios |
| All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical) | |||
| — | Ahna O’Reilly | “Where the Crawdads Sing” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Aimee Lou Wood | “Living” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Aisling Franciosi | “God’s Creatures” | A24 |
| — | Alba Baptista | “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” | Focus Features |
| — | Alejandra Flechner | “Argentina, 1985” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Alice Englert | “You Won’t Be Alone” | Focus Features |
| — | Alix West Leller | “The Good Nurse” | Netflix |
| — | Amanda Bearse | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Amber Grey | “Master” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Anamaria Marinca | “You Won’t Be Alone” | Focus Features |
| — | Andrea Riseborough | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Andrea Riseborough | “Matilda” | Netflix |
| — | Angela Bassett | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Anne Hathaway | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| — | Anya Taylor-Joy | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Anya Taylor-Joy | “The Northman” | Focus Features |
| — | Ashely Park | “Mr. Malcolm’s List” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Avis Marie Barnes | “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.” | Focus Features |
| — | Benja K. Thomas | “A Love Song” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Billie Piper | “Catherine Called Birdy” | Amazon Studios |
| — | BJÖRK |
“The Northman” | Focus Features |
| — | Bria Danielle Singleton | “Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Carey Mulligan | “She Said” | Universal Pictures |
| — | CCH Pounder | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Charlotte Gainsbourg | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Netflix |
| — | Charmaine Bingwa | “Emancipation” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Chloë Sevigny | “Bones & All” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Christina Jackson | “Devotion” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Claire Foy | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Connie Britton | “Breaking” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Crystal Clarke | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Dakota Johnson | “Cha Cha Real Smooth” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Danai Gurira | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Dolly De Leon | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon |
| — | Dominique Thorne | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Doona Bae | “Broker” | Neon |
| — | Dot-Marie Jones | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Edie Falco | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Ego Nwodim | “Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Elaine Cassidy | “The Wonder” | Netflix |
| — | Elizabeth McGovern | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Elizabeth Olsen | “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Ellen Thomas | “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” | Focus Features |
| — | Émilie Dequenne | “Close” | A24 |
| — | Émilie Dequenne | “Close” | A24 |
| — | Emily Mitchell | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Emma Corrin | “My Policeman” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Emma Thompson | “Matilda” | Netflix |
| — | Emma Thompson | “What’s Love Got to Do With It?” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Emmy Raver-Lampman | “Dog” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Eve Lindley | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Florence Kasumba | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Frances McDormand | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Gabrielle Union | “Strange World” | Walt Disney Pictures |
| — | Gabrielle Union | “The Inspection” | A24 |
| — | Gemma Chan | “Don’t Worry Darling” | Warner Bros |
| — | Gillian Anderson | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Netflix |
| — | Greta Gerwig | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| — | Griselda Sicillani | “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” | Netflix |
| — | Haley Bennett | “Till” | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Haley Lu Richardson | “After Yang” | A24 |
| — | Hong Chau | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Hong Chau | “The Whale” | A24 |
| — | Imelda Staunton | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Iris Berben | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon |
| — | Isabella Rossellini | “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On” | A24 |
| — | Isabelle Huppert | “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” | Focus Features |
| — | Jaimie Alexander | “Thor: Love and Thunder” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Jamie Lee Curtis | “Everything Everywhere All at Once” | A24 |
| — | Jane Adams | “Dog” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Janelle Monáe |
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | Janet McTeer | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Janet McTeer | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Jayme Lawson | “The Woman King” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Jayme Lawson | “Till” | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Jean Smart | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Jeannie Berlin | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Jennifer Connelly | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Jennifer Ehle | “She Said” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Jessica Chastain | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| — | Jessica Hardwick | “The Lost King” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Jessica Harper | “Bones & All” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Jessica Henwick | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | Jessie Buckley | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Joanne Froggatt | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Jodhi May | “The Silent Twins” | Focus Features |
| — | Jodie Turner-Smith | “After Yang” | A24 |
| — | Joely Richardson | “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” | Netflix |
| — | Jojo Regina | “Where the Crawdads Sing” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Judi Dench | “Allelujah” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Judith Ivey | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Judith Ivey | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Judith Light | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Julia Butters | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Julianne Nicholson | “Blonde” | Netflix |
| — | Kaitlyn Dever | “Ticket to Paradise” | Netflix |
| — | Kate Berlant | “Don’t Worry Darling” | Warner Bros |
| — | Kate Hallett | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Kate Hudson | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | Kate Winslet | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Kathryn Hahn | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | Keke Palmer* | “Nope” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Kerry Condon | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Kiki Layne | “Don’t Worry Darling” | Warner Bros |
| — | Kila Lord Cassidy | “The Wonder” | Netflix |
| — | Kim Dickens | “The Good Nurse” | Netflix |
| — | Kim Dickens | “The Good Nurse” | Netflix |
| — | Kimberly Guerrero | “Montana Story” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Kristen Stewart | “Crimes of the Future” | Neon |
| — | Lashana Lynch | “Matilda” | Netflix |
| — | Lashana Lynch | “The Woman King” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Laura Carmichael | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Laura Dern | “The Son” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Laura Haddock | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Léa Drucker | “Close” | A24 |
| — | Léa Drucker | “Close” | A24 |
| — | Léa Seydoux | “Crimes of the Future” | Neon |
| — | Lesley Nicol | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Lesley Sharp | “Catherine Called Birdy” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Leslie Uggams | “Nanny” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Li Jun Li | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Lily Fisher | “Blonde” | Netflix |
| — | Lucy Boynton | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Netflix |
| — | Lupita Nyong’o | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Lyric Hurd | “Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Mabel Cadena | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Madelyn Cline | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | Maggie Smith | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Malea Emma Tjandrawidjaja | “After Yang” | A24 |
| — | Mar Carrera | “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” | Netflix |
| — | Margot Robbie | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Maria Bakalova | “Bodies Bodies Bodies” | A24 |
| — | Mariana Treviño | “A Man Called Otto” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Marianne Jean-Baptiste | “The Sea Beast” | Netflix |
| — | Marsha Stephanie Blake | “Brother” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | May Nivola | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| — | Meteora Fontana | “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” | Netflix |
| — | Michael Hyatt | “Where the Crawdads Sing” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Michaela Coel | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Michelle McLeod | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Michelle Monaghan | “Nanny” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Michelle Williams* | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Michelle Wilson | “A Love Song” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Michelle Yeoh | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Nadine Marshall | “The Silent Twins” | Focus Features |
| — | Nathalie Baye | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Niamh Algar | “The Wonder” | Netflix |
| — | Nicole Beharie | “Breaking” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Nicole Beharie | “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.” | Focus Features |
| — | Nicole Kidman | “The Northman” | Focus Features |
| — | Nicole LaLiberté | “Dog” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Nikki Amuka-Bird | “The Outfit” | Focus Features |
| — | Nina Hoss | “Tár” | Focus Features |
| — | Noémie Merlant | “Tár” | Focus Features |
| — | Noomi Rapace | “You Won’t Be Alone” | Focus Features |
| — | Octavia Spencer | “Spirited” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Olivia DeJonge | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Olivia Wilde | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Olivia Wilde | “Don’t Worry Darling” | Warner Bros |
| — | Oona Chaplin | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Patricia Clarkson | “Monica” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Patricia Clarkson | “She Said” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Pattrakorn Tungsupakul | “Thirteen Lives” | Amazon Studios/MGM |
| — | Penelope Wilton | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Phyllis Logan | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Q’Orianka Kilcher | “Dog” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Queen Latifah | “Hustle” | Netflix |
| — | Quintessa Swindell | “Black Adam” | Warner Bros |
| — | Rachel Keller | “A Man Called Otto” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Rachel Keller | “Butcher’s Crossing” | Saban Films |
| — | Raffey Cassidy | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| — | Raquel Cassidy | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Rose Decker | “Nanny” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Rose Williams | “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” | Focus Features |
| — | Ruth Wilson | “See How They Run” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Sabrina Carpenter | “Emergency” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Sadie Sink | “The Whale” | A24 |
| — | Sally Field | “Spoiler Alert” | Focus Features |
| — | Samantha Morton | “She Said” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Samantha Morton | “The Whale” | A24 |
| — | Selenis Leyva | “Breaking” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Shayla Brown | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Sheila Atim | “The Woman King” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Sheila McCarthy | “Women Talking” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Sigourney Weaver | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Sigourney Weaver | “Call Jane” | Roadside Attractions |
| — | Sophie Kauer | “Tár” | Focus Features |
| — | Sophie McShera | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Sophie Okonedo | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Stephanie Hsu | “Everything Everywhere All at Once” | A24 |
| — | Sydney Chandler | “Don’t Worry Darling” | Warner Bros |
| — | Tamara Tunie | “Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Tanya Moodie | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Taylor Swift | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Tessa Thompson | “Thor: Love and Thunder” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Thuso Mbedu | “The Woman King” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Ts Madison | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Tuppence Middleton | “Downton Abbey: A New Era” | Focus Features |
| — | Vanessa Kirby | “The Son” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Vicki Berlin | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon |
| — | Whoopi Goldberg | “Till” | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Wunmi Mosaku | “Alice, Darling” | Lionsgate |
| — | Ximena Lamadrid | “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” | Netflix |
| — | Zawe Ashton | “Mr. Malcolm’s List” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Zoë Kravitz | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Zoe Renee | “Master” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Zoe Saldaña |
“Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Zoey Deutch | “The Outfit” | Focus Features |
| — | Zooey Deschanel | “Dreamin’ Wild” | No U.S. Distribution |
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.