Trump’s Top Two Middle East Allies Are on a Collision Course in Syria

As regional and international stakeholders scramble to strike a deal over the war in Gaza, a dangerous rivalry is escalating between U.S. allies Israel and Turkey in Syria, where geopolitically fueled conflict persists three months after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad.

Israel, emboldened by victories in its war with Hamas and Iranian allies in the region, has taken advantage of Syria’s post-Assad chaos to seize more swathes of southern land beyond the long-occupied Golan Heights and establish a new buffer zone against potential foes. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have also intensified airstrikes against Syrian military positions and have sought to foster contacts with local Druze and Kurdish minority communities of the majority-Arab nation.

Turkey, an increasingly influential regional power and member of the U.S.-led NATO alliance, maintains bases in the north and has set out to leverage close ties with Syrian opposition factions to assert its position in the absence of Assad allies Iran and Russia, whose influence have waned after the longtime Syrian leader’s ouster at the hands of an Islamist-led rebel offensive in December. Ankara also recently struck a ceasefire deal to quell the decades-long insurgency waged by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) from Syria and Iraq.

U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed admiration for both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, viewing them as pivotal players in his emerging vision for the Middle East. But with the two men now locked in an increasingly volatile duel, some observers have warned of a potential clash on the horizon if they could not properly manage their opposing interests in Syria.

“I will phrase this cautiously without claiming to predict the future,” Efrat Aviv, associate professor at Bar-Ilan University and senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, told Newsweek. “I believe that a confrontation, possibly even a small-scale military one, may occur between Israel and Turkey at some stage.”

Israel and Turkey both view Syria as being linked to their respective core interests given the country’s proximity and recent history of unrest. Racked by civil war since 2011, Syria was drawn into the broader battle between Israel and the Iran-led Axis of Resistance coalition sparked by the war in Gaza that began in October 2023.

While Syria did not directly participate in hostilities against Israel, it served as a key center of operation for Iran-aligned militias that had for years supported the Syrian government against rebels and jihadis at home. The same day that Israel and the Hezbollah movement signed a ceasefire after fierce battles in neighboring Lebanon last November, Syria’s seemingly frozen internal front lines suddenly erupted as an offensive led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group quickly seized major cities.

The swift collapse of a half-century of Baathist party rule in Syria less than two weeks later sewed initials hopes for stability. Yet optimism has since largely given way to uncertainty over the orientation of the new government led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, HTS leader and a former associate of the Al-Qaeda and Islamic State (ISIS) militant groups, as well as the competing influence of neighboring powers.

Sharaa, who has rejected jihadi ideologies in recent years, has adopted a cautious approach to Israel, condemning its attacks and occupation of Syrian territory, while emphasizing his government posed no threat to the longtime foe. The nascent Syrian administration has meanwhile also sought greater security guarantees from Turkey.

Turkey had previously maintained a largely ambiguous policy toward Sharaa’s now-dissolved HTS, instead openly backing the rival rebel coalition of the Syrian National Army. However, long-fraught ties between Ankara and Damascus have been on the definitive upswing since the joint insurgent victory in December.

Now Aviv argued that the growing Turkish role in Syria, bolstered by billions of dollars in investment, has ushered in new concerns for Israel.

“Due to these massive investments, Turkey may demand a military foothold in Syria, especially given Syria’s weakness in this fragile situation, potentially posing a threat to Israel,” Aviv said. “Turkey does not want its vision in Syria to be harmed. It demands that Israel withdraw beyond the border and claims that Israel is destabilizing the Middle East by doing so, with Erdogan having threatened military action against Israel at least twice.”

“Moreover,” she added, “Israel is very concerned about the Turkish connection to Hamas and Turkey’s clear and famous support for Hamas.”

And just as Israel has repeatedly sought to compare Hamas to ISIS, Aviv said that Israel continues to view Sharaa, the man now leading Syria, as “an ISIS member.” She argued that “the Kurds are currently an ally that Israel trusts” in Syria, with the Druze also playing a potentially important role as, “with the connection to the Druze community in Israel, there is also the possibility of renewing the brotherly alliance that could ensure the protection of the shared border due to similar interests.”

Such talk has elicited fears across Syria of a de facto partition at a time when the country was already divided between the newly established central government, Turkish control in the north, Israeli presence in the south and the autonomous administration of the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast.

The lingering deployment of U.S. troops in SDF-held territory has long been a point of contention between Washington and Ankara, which views the SDF and its affiliated Democratic Union Party (PYD) and People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia as direct arms of the PKK. Trump had previously moved to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria during his first term following a deal with Erdogan and reports indicate the U.S. leader may be seeking to carry out the exit in full this time around.

Now, in the eyes of Turkey, Israel’s attempts to forge new alliances in Syria have painted Netanyahu as a “radical actor,” according to Murat Aslan, associate professor at Hasan Kalyoncu University and a senior researcher at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA).

“The fall of Assad has changed the Israeli stance, to some extent, due to its October 7th psychology and Netanyahu-led conservative agenda,” Murat told Newsweek. “Israel perceived the gap in Syria as an opportunity to destroy the Syrian military inventory, to expand the territory toward the east, and encourage Druzes and PKK/PYD establishing a proxy structure loyal to Israel.”

In the face of this apparent strategy, Aslan said that “Türkiye will show patience up until the last degree of toleration.” But he warned that “if Israel continues to escalate more, there may be a coordinated effort together with Damascus through a phased approach.”

And while Aslan viewed a direct military confrontation as “the last resort” for Ankara, he saw the possibility of “other defensive, deterrent, low cost and asymmetric assets/methods, which could be practiced easily” in order to keep Israel at bay.

“Whatever the situation, the ultimate assessment in Türkiye is that Israeli security depends on the securitization of the other identities,” he said. “Once Israel escalates more and more, it will be a life cycle of violence that never ends.”

Warnings of a potential Israel-Turkey conflict also came in January from an Israeli government commission led by former national security chief Jacob Nagel. The report cautioned of “the direct danger of Turkish-Israeli hostilities” should Erdogan realize “the Turkish dream of returning the Ottoman crown to its former glory.”

Netanyahu had earlier declared that his country had “no interest in confronting Syria” in the wake of Assad’s fall. The comment, however, followed some of Israel’s most intensive strikes to date against dozens of military targets, including warships, aircraft, missile depots and chemical weapons stockpiles, and a ground incursion across the no man’s land that lies beyond the 1974 Golan Heights armistice line.

The Israeli premier hardened his position last month as he demanded the “full demilitarization of southern Syria from troops of the new Syrian regime in the Quneitra, Daraa and Suweyda provinces” and asserted that “we will not tolerate any threat to the Druze community in southern Syria.”

The remarks were met with protests by Syrian Druze who carried the new Syrian flag and called for Israel’s withdrawal from the country. A more sinister form of unrest manifested last Friday after the killing of a Syrian security officer in the largely Druze and Christian Damascus suburb of Jaramana, where additional security forces were later deployed.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened intervention on Saturday, stating that the IDF “will not allow Syria’s extremist Islamist terror regime to harm the Druze” and that his forces had been instructed to enforce the ultimatum.

On Monday, Erdogan issued a warning against “those seeking to benefit from Syria’s instability,” vowing that Turkey “will not allow them to divide Syria as they imagine.” The IDF conducted a new set of strikes in Syria shortly after.

Newsweek has reached out to the Israel Consulate General in New York for comment.

While Israel has sought to portray itself as the guarantor of minority rights in Syria, Turkey has presented itself as a leading force for stability and unity.

“Türkiye prioritizes a secure and safe Syria, where Syria’s territorial integrity and political unity are preserved,” an official at the Turkish Embassy to the United States told Newsweek. “In this respect, we object to all attempts aimed at undermining Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

“We wish to see Syrians live in a stable country that provides welfare for its citizens, ensures an inclusive political system, and where terrorism emanating from Syria does not pose a threat to Syrian people and Syria’s neighbors,” the official added. “Türkiye is cooperating with regional countries like Jordan and Iraq in helping Syria in its fight against terrorism.”

The Turkish official also highlighted the country’s long-standing ties to the Syrian opposition, Ankara’s desire to rehabilitate the new government in Damascus on the world stage and the impact of the conflict in Syria at home, where Turkey hosts around three million refugees, the most of any nation and one of the largest refugee populations in the world.

“Türkiye stood with the Syrian people during the last 14 years in their struggle and is ready to help Syrians achieve peace and prosperity in the period ahead,” the official said.

“For this reason, Türkiye has been prioritizing its own engagement with the New Administration of Syria and has been encouraging the international community to do the same by lifting sanctions, investing in the reconstruction efforts, and rebuilding a peaceful future for all Syrians,” the official added. “In this respect, facilitating the return of millions of displaced Syrians remains a priority.”

Meanwhile, pessimism is once again on the rise in Syria over the looming threat of renewed conflict that would further derail its future.

Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat now an editor at Syria Update, told Newsweek that “Türkiye is neither willing nor able to shield Syria from Israeli actions,” while “Israel must signal a genuine commitment to peace rather than another prolonged conflict.”

He doubted that either side was truly committed to engaging in a direct confrontation, but also warned of the associated costs as “Syrians neither want nor can afford such a conflict—our country is already devastated.”

To avoid this, Barabandi urged the Israel and Turkey’s mutual ally to play a more proactive role in negotiating peace between Israel and Syria.

“A more effective approach would be for the United States to mediate a form of understanding between Syria and Israel,” Barabandi said. “However, this would require Syria’s new leadership to demonstrate a willingness to prioritize the country’s core interests over ideological conflicts.”

Trump has yet to signal any desire to engage with Sharaa, having instead stated that the U.S. “should have nothing to do” with the internal conflicts of Syria as Assad’s government imploded just weeks before inauguration day in Washington. Incoming Vice President JD Vance was notably suspicious of the rebel victory, likening it to past jihadi advances that resulted in human rights abuses against minorities, particularly Christians.

Trump also stated around this time that Erdogan would “hold the key” to what comes next in Syria, calling the Turkish leader “smart” and someone he respects. The White House’s attention on Middle East policy has since largely been drawn to Gaza, on which Trump has consulted closely with Netanyahu.

Barabandi, for his part, lamented the notion of Syria once again being caught in the crosshairs of rival nations.

“From a Syrian perspective,” he said, “we do not wish to see our country become a battleground for competing regional powers.”