SAG Awards Final Predictions: ‘Conclave,’ ‘Emilia Pérez’ and ‘Wicked’ Projected to Lead Nominations

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

SAG Awards Commentary (Updated Jan. 6, 2025): Netflix’s Spanish-language crime musical “Emilia Pérez,” which dazzled at the Golden Globes on Sunday, is poised to dominate the upcoming SAG Awards nominations with four nods: cast ensemble, actress (Karla Sofía Gascón), and two supporting actress spots for Selena Gomez and Zoe Saldaña.

Projected to be hot on its heels in the nominations tally are Universal Pictures’ blockbuster musical “Wicked” and Focus Features’ papal thriller “Conclave,” each with three.

The SAG NomCom — comprised of 2,000 anonymous guild members in film and TV — has a storied history of surprises. Films like “House of Gucci” and “The Big Sick” have defied the odds to earn recognition, while others like “Crazy Rich Asians” and “Beasts of No Nation” enjoyed SAG glory but were shut out at the Oscars. The guild’s penchant for large, star-studded casts could give an edge to Sony Pictures’ “Saturday Night,” which boasts an ensemble of 26 individual title cards. Should it receive a nomination, it would surpass “Gosford Park” (2001) for the largest nominated cast in SAG history.

The best actor race is a nail-biter, with the fifth slot up for grabs. Could it go to Daniel Craig for his transformative turn in “Queer,” Hugh Grant for the horror thriller “Heretic,” or Sebastian Stan, who delivered stellar performances in both “The Apprentice” and “A Different Man?” And with Stan, that could bring his co-star Jeremy Strong in for the ride as well.

In the fiercely competitive best actress category, Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) and Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) are expected to shine in musical performances, while Demi Moore (“The Substance”) and Mikey Madison (“Anora”) have been building steam for weeks. However, Marianne Jean-Baptiste’s groundbreaking portrayal in “Hard Truths” could be the dark horse. Jean-Baptiste recently completed a rare critics’ trifecta, winning accolades from the NYFCC, LAFCA, and the National Society of Film Critics — a feat accomplished by only five other women — twice by Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine” and “Tár”), Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”), and two other Leigh-directed leading ladies, Sally Hawkins (“Happy-Go-Lucky”) and Imelda Staunton (“Vera Drake”). Adding further confusion, Fernanda Torres, fresh off her Golden Globe win for “I’m Still Here,” could disrupt the race for Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) and Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”). I’m starting to believe the category’s depth suggests no frontrunner is genuinely safe.

The supporting acting categories promise to be equally competitive. Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”) and Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”), both snubbed at the Golden Globes, could find redemption here. Meanwhile, still unheralded contenders like Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”) and the duo from “A Complete Unknown,” Elle Fanning and Monica Barbaro, remain wild cards. These categories often celebrate under-the-radar performances, providing an opportunity for breakouts.

The SAG Awards have long been a bellwether for Emmy contenders, and this year is no different. FX’s epic historical drama “Shōgun,” headlined by Hiroyuki Sanada and Anna Sawai, has already shattered records, becoming the most decorated drama series in history. We expect it to still dominate with two Netflix series, “The Diplomat” and “Squid Game.”

In comedy, ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” remains a dominant force, with its clever writing and seamless ensemble — led by Quinta Brunson — cementing its status as an awards darling. Other major contenders include Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building,” featuring comedic heavyweights Steve Martin, Martin Short, and Selena Gomez, and FX’s culinary drama “The Bear,” which has become one of the year’s most critically lauded series. Whether HBO/Max’s “Hacks” makes a roaring comeback remains.

The SAG Awards nominations will be unveiled on Wednesday, Jan. 8, with actors Joey King (“We Were the Lucky Ones”) and Cooper Koch (“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”) announcing the honorees. It could be a career milestone for Koch, as he’s likely to score a nod for his chilling portrayal in the streaming series.

The final SAG Awards nomination predictions are below.

The 31st Screen Actors Guild Awards will air live on Netflix on Sunday, Feb. 23, 2025, and the 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.