Oscar Predictions: Animated, Documentary and Live Action Short — Small Films With Big Potential With Films From Zoe Saldaña and Rashida Jones in the Running

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Animated Short – Documentary Short – Live Action Short Commentary (Updated Jan. 9, 2025):

The Oscar short film categories often serve as the wildcards of awards season — perfect for breaking your office pool or discovering the next big filmmaking talent. But they’re far more than just filler. Some of cinema’s brightest stars have roots in short-form storytelling, and the category continues to showcase auteurs making a significant impact in films under 40 minutes.

This year’s shortlist, announced in December, comes from various talents, including Zoe Saldaña, who stars in and produces “Dovecote.” Directed by her husband, Marco Perego, it marks their second collaboration following “The Absence of Eden.”

In the documentary short category, the unpredictability rivals its feature-length counterpart, with the same branch voting on both. Early favorites include “Incident,” “The Only Girl in the Orchestra,” “The Quilters,” “Death by Numbers,” and “Keepers,” according to Variety’s Jamie Lang and Addie Morfoot, who analyzed the race. But let’s face it — this is one race no one ever confidently predicts.

In live-action short, Nebojša Slijepčević’s Cannes winner “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” has emerged as an early frontrunner. The film tells the harrowing true story of one man’s stand against paramilitary forces during ethnic cleansing in Belgrade. Another contender is Adam J. Graves’ HollyShorts winner “Anuja,” which explores child labor in India. The film boasts high-profile executive producers, including Oscar-winning Indian producer Guneet Monga Kapoor and Hollywood’s Mindy Kaling.

The animated short category is equally stacked, with 13 countries represented among the 15 finalists. Canada’s Torill Kove, a previous Oscar winner for “The Danish Poet” (2007), aims for her fourth nomination with “Maybe Elephants,” a festival favorite at Annecy, Berlin, and Toronto. Meanwhile, Portugal’s Alexandra Ramires and Laura Gonçalves return with “Percebes,” the 2024 Annecy Cristal winner, building on Gonçalves’ previous success with “The Garbage Man.”

Whether live action, animated, or documentary, this year’s short films prove that great storytelling knows no runtime.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.