The New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons square off for the second time this season on Sunday. The Falcons got the best of the Saints in round one, but after Dennis Allen’s firing, maybe Darren Rizzi can light a new fire under the Saints.
The Falcons are riding high right now. They’re winners of five of their last six and are coming off a win over the Cowboys. Everything seems to be going right for them right now, which is why a trip to the Superdome could be a trap spot.
Despite their 6-3 record, the Falcons defense hasn’t been all that great through nine weeks. They’re allowing 24 points per game (a number that’s risen to 27 over their last three) and rank 20th in the league in scoring. Luckily for them, they get a Saints offense that just has not been good since week three. The Saints are scoring 23 points per game this year, but that number drops to 13.3 over the last three weeks, which is the worst in the NFL over that span. Part of that is due to Derek Carr being hurt and Spencer Rattler starting. In their last three games with Carr playing four quarters, the Saints have scored 22, 13 and 24 for an average of just under 20 a game.
The Saints are going to be without Chris Olave this weekend, meaning we’re going to see a lot more of Marques Valdez-Scantling, Mason Tipton and Cedric Wilson Jr. out wide. Against the Panthers, those three combined for three catches for 39 yards. We should also see a healthy dose of Taysom Hill, Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson in the pass game like we did last week.
Atlanta’s defense also ranks 20th in passing yards per game allowed, surrendering 218 per game. They have a lot of talent at safety, but their corners are a bit more susceptible to giving up plays. They haven’t played a WR unit as beat up as the Saints, though, so we’ll see how they perform on Sunday, but I think they can do a pretty good job of locking down the Saints wideouts.
On the ground, things haven’t been a whole lot better for the Saints. Their rushing numbers are inflated from two games against the Panthers and their week two matchup against the Cowboys, but against other teams, they haven’t been very good. Alvin Kamara is coming off a 155-yard performance shortly after getting his new contract, though, so hopefully he can come out against the Falcons and have that same type of performance.
It’s not like the Falcons rushing defense is great either. They’re giving up 133.1 yards per game on the ground and 4.6 yards per carry, both of which rank in the bottom third of the league. It’s a battle between bad and worse, but someone’s got to win it.
On paper, this isn’t the worst matchup for the Saints. The Falcons are a bottom-12 offense in the league, but unfortunately for the Saints, they’re just so beat up it probably doesn’t even matter. They have very little receiving weapons and an offensive line that just flat out isn’t that good. If they want a chance, Alvin Kamara’s going to need to go off in the run and pass game.
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