Every Tuesday this NFL season, Newsweek sports betting writers Tyler Everett and Matt Modi are offering their early ATS takes on every game on the schedule.
Week 12 brings the final NFL Sunday of November. Six teams are on the bye this week, which makes for one of the lightest slates of the season
The top Week 12 matchups include 49ers vs. Packers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET), Cardinals vs. Seahawks (also late Sunday afternoon) and Eagles vs. Rams on SNF.
This weekend concludes with a must-see Monday Night Football showdown between John Harbaugh’s Ravens and Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers.
In Week 11, Everett (10-4) and Modi (7-4) both nailed at least 50 percent of their picks for the second straight week.
Season records on early NFL ATS picks:
- Everett: 83-77-6
- Modi: 66-79-6*
*Modi sat out Week 7, hence the discrepancy in how many games these two have picked this year.
All odds via DraftKings; all kickoff times ET
Steelers (-3.5) at Browns — Thursday, 8:15 p.m.
Everett: Steelers -3.5
The Steelers are playing lights-out defensively, and the Russell Wilson-led offense is making the plays it has to every week. Give us the Steelers to take care of business and extend their winning streak to six.
Modi: Browns +3.5
The Steelers have now won two games this year in which they did not score an offensive touchdown. Eventually, that witch-magic type of luck has to run out.
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Vikings (-3) at Bears — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Vikings -3
Caleb Williams and the Bears looked much better in their first week under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, but I don’t expect Williams to play well enough against the aggressive Brian Flores-led Vikes D for the Bears to pull the upset.
Modi: Bears +3
The Bears have now lost multiple games in hilariously dramatic fashion, but the reality is they looked much more competent last week than in previous weeks. Now, they get a matchup against a reeling Vikings team.
Lions (-7.5) at Colts — Sunday 1 p.m.
Everett: Lions -7.5
The Colts got a spark from Anthony Richardson’s return last Sunday, but they’re not good enough defensively to hang with the Lions for 60 minutes — assuming, of course, that Goff doesn’t turn the ball over a (literal) handful of times.
Modi: Colts +7.5
Anthony Richardson looked improved in his return as the starting QB after getting benched, while the Lions have a divisional matchup on Thanksgiving to look forward to. Hot take: they do NOT score 50 points this week.
Patriots at Dolphins (-7) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Dolphins -7
This is more points than I want to lay with most teams facing the frisky Drake Maye-led Pats right now, but Miami will put just enough points on the scoreboard to keep New England at bay and cover.
Modi: Patriots +7
Even with Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup, this Dolphins offense has not looked right. Meanwhile, Drake Maye has looked solid since taking over the starting role, so the Patriots will keep this one within seven.
Buccaneers (-5.5) at Giants — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Buccaneers -5.5
The new QB boost isn’t as strong as the new head coach boost, but Tommy DeVito will bring a spark for the Giants.
The Bucs have lost four in a row, but they played well against both the Chiefs and the 49ers. They’re also well-rested, and they will likely have difference-making WR Mike Evans back for this game. That should be enough for a bounce-back win by at least a touchdown.
Modi: Buccaneers -5.5
Generally, fading Tommy DeVito and the Giants works in your favor. I will gladly take the Bucs to win by two scores.
Cowboys at Commanders (-10.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Commanders -10.5
The Commanders looked like a team that might be hitting a wall in last Thursday’s loss to the Eagles. Despite that, they should be able to run the ball enough vs. Dallas to get a comfortable win, especially if Cooper Rush looks anything like he did against the Eagles and the Texans the last two weeks.
Modi: Cowboys +10.5
Eventually, the Cowboys won’t get blown out. Right?
Chiefs (-10.5) at Panthers — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Panthers +10.5
At the risk of overreacting to their solid performances against the lowly Saints and Giants, the Panthers look much better over the last few weeks than they did early this season.
It would (obviously) be shocking to see the Chiefs drop two in a row after their first loss of the year. Nevertheless, I’ll take the Panthers, who continue to get healthier on both sides of the ball, to do just enough to keep this one respectable.
Modi: Chiefs -10.5
The Chiefs have spent all season mostly not blowing teams out, but they are also coming off of their first loss of the season and facing one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Titans at Texans (-8.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Titans +8.5
The Titans don’t inspire a ton of confidence right now, but they’re good enough defensively to keep this game within a touchdown. They’ve also quietly gotten two solid performances in a row by Will Levis the last two weeks, albeit in back-to-back 10-point losses.
Modi: Titans +8.5
The Texans took it to the Cowboys last week, but that team is dead. The Titans have a tough defense, and Texans QB C.J. Stroud has struggled against top-half defenses in his career.
Broncos (-5.5) at Raiders — Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Everett: Broncos -5.5
Speaking of young quarterbacks who have played well recently, Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix was outstanding in his team’s Week 10 blowout win over Atlanta. I expect him to lead Denver, which is 7-3 ATS, to another comfortable win over a Raiders team that has been outscored 75-43 over the last two weeks.
Modi: Broncos -5.5
The Raiders are dead, while the Broncos have quietly become one of the better teams in the NFL.
49ers at Packers (-2.5) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Everett: Packers -2.5
If the 49ers have QB Brock Purdy, LT Trent Williams and TE George Kittle healthy, I won’t feel great about taking the Packers, but amid early-week uncertainty about all three of those players, taking Green Bay by a field goal at home is the smart play right now.
Modi: 49ers +2.5
This has been a tough season for the 49ers, but while the Packers have shown signs of becoming the elite team that everybody thought they were before the season, they have yet to really put it together.
Cardinals at Seahawks (-1) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Everett: Cardinals +1
Oddsmakers are showing Arizona (6-4, 7-3 ATS) absolutely no respect. At this point, it’s hard to predict when that will change. The Cardinals are as tempting as any underdog on the board this week. I’ll take them to win outright against the Seahawks, who have found themselves in nailbiters in each of their last two games.
Modi: Seahawks -1
The Seahawks got a much-needed victory over their division rival 49ers last week, and at home, I will trust them to take down the Cardinals, who have been playing over their heads for over a month now.
Eagles (-2.5) at Rams — Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Everett: Rams +2.5
Philly is firing on all cylinders right now, and at first glance, they’re an easy bet to pull out a close win over the 5-5 Rams. L.A., however, strikes us a live dog as Matthew Stafford (295 yards and 4 TDs in last Sunday’s win over New England) continues to defy his age, and the duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua make this a tough team to beat when they’re healthy.
Modi: Rams +2.5
As good as the Eagles defense has been for the past six weeks, their passing offense has quietly looked lost for the majority of that same timeframe. Eventually, that will come back to bite them.
Ravens (-3) at Chargers — Monday, 8:15 p.m.
Everett: Chargers +3
The Ravens are making too many mistakes on a weekly basis for us to trust them to cover against the Chargers on the road. I’m not convinced L.A. will win this one outright, but I’ll take the home underdog in what looks like yet another Ravens game that will be decided at the last second.
Modi: Ravens -3
The battle of the Harbaughs is always fun, and we’ll trust the Ravens to bounce back after a tough loss to the Steelers last week.
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