In four highly contested swing states, former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, may have an edge over Vice President Kamala Harris as voter registration for the GOP increased in all but one state, while the Democratic Party saw a significantly larger drop in registered voters since the last presidential election.
Party affiliation doesn’t guarantee support for a party’s candidate, but it can indicate how the state might swing. Voter registration is currently open in every state, with the earliest deadline a month ahead of Election Day and the latest on November 5; therefore, these numbers are subject to change.
Newsweek reached out to Harris’ and Trump’s campaign for comment via email on Wednesday.
Arizona
Arizona is a key battleground state in both the 2020 and 2024 elections, where President Joe Biden narrowly won its 11 Electoral College votes by just over 10,000 votes.
While both Republicans and Democrats appear to have lost registered voters in the state, the latest data from July 30 shows a more than 13 percent drop in Democratic registration since 2020 and a decrease of over 3.5 percent for Republicans. However, more voters are likely to register before the election, potentially tightening the race even further.
As of July 30, Republicans have nearly 260,000 more registered voters, giving them a nearly 19 percent lead over Democrats, with 1,454,966 registered Republicans compared to 1,195,696 registered Democrats. In November 2020, Republicans held a 9 percent lead, with 1,508,778 registered Republicans and 1,378,324 registered Democrats.
While Harris and Trump were neck and neck in Arizona for most of August and September, recent polling shows Trump with an edge. FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate poll puts Trump ahead by 1.4 percentage points, while The New York Times‘ aggregate shows him leading by 3 points.
AP Photo/Adam Bettcher
Nevada
With just over 33,000 votes, Biden clinched the Silver State in the 2020 election against Trump. Now, as the race heats up between Harris and Trump, the GOP has reason to celebrate in the state: voter registration is up by 2 percent for Republicans since the last election, while Democratic registration is down 6 percent.
However, there are still more registered Democrats in the state than Republicans, although the gap is closing from a near 16.5 percent Democratic advantage in registered voters in 2020 to now just under 7 percent.
As of September 1, there were 713,789 registered Democrats compared to 667,542 registered Republicans. In 2020, Democrats had nearly 30,000 more than today, with 762,460 registered voters. There were 653,429 registered Republicans in 2020.
Aggregate state polls show Harris with a near 1 percent lead over Trump, with The New York Times aggregate poll putting Harris at 49 percent and Trump at 48 percent.
North Carolina
The Tar Heel State has been a campaign hotbed in recent weeks, with candidates and their running mates frequently speaking in the state. Adding to the political turmoil, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson has been at the center of a personal conduct scandal, and the state is reeling from the lethal impact of Hurricane Helene last week.
The race is in a near deadlock, with some polling aggregates showing Trump leading by around 1 percentage point, a reversal from Harris’s edge earlier in September. Trump won the state in 2020 by a margin of nearly 75,000 votes.
According to state voter registration data from September 28, registered Republicans have increased by over 2.7 percent since the 2020 election, while Democratic registration has dropped by nearly 8 percent. There are currently 2,292,483 registered Republicans in the state and 2,415,536 registered Democrats, whereas in 2020 there were 2,231,586 registered Republicans and 2,623,000 registered Democrats.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania, the largest of the four featured swing states, boasting 19 Electoral College voters, one less than in 2020, has seen a near 2.5 percent increase in registered Republican voters and an almost 6 percent decrease in registered Democrats. However, as of September 30, there are nearly 300,000 more registered Democrats in the state, with 3,941,347 compared to 3,608,032 registered Republicans.
In 2020, Biden narrowly flipped the state, which went to Trump in 2016.
Democrats had a larger lead in the last election, with 4,183,292 registered Democrats and 3,517,090 registered Republicans.
The race for the White House is extremely tight in Pennsylvania, with FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate state poll showing Harris up by 0.7 percentage points and The New York Times showing a similar 1 percent lead.
