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The race for the White House may not run through New York, but Donald Trump was there Wednesday night anyway, rallying on Long Island, where the race for the House majority is definitely a focal point.
“Long Island is a battleground island,” freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito said while addressing the rally ahead of Trump, adding that the House majority would run through the island after the November elections.
Republicans are optimistic about their chances to win House seats in New York, where there are seven races which Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales considers competitive, even as a Siena College poll released Thursday showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump by 13 percentage points statewide. The same poll showed Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s favorability is at an all-time low. Meanwhile, New York City Mayor Eric Adams and associates, including top officials in his administration, appear to be the subjects of federal investigations.
Still, Democrats view these seats as some of their best pickup opportunities. The DCCC criticized D’Esposito for skipping a vote Wednesday on a government spending bill, which was defeated 202-220, to attend the rally.
“D’Esposito would rather take his taxpayer-funded salary and pledge allegiance to Trump’s dangerous agenda … than get results for Nassau County families,” Ellie Dougherty, a spokesperson for the DCCC, said in a statement ahead of the rally. It’s worth noting, however, that the 220 votes against the spending bill included 206 Democrats.
Trump’s New York rally came a day after he said in a social media post that he would work to eliminate the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions. The cap, which hits hardest in New York and other high-tax states, was part of the 2017 tax package that Trump signed into law.
Trump offered a grim look at New York City, saying that when he grew up there, his parents used to send him on the subway alone, something he said parents today couldn’t do. It’s a message that fits into what helped Republicans in 2022 win seats in the state that had backed Biden over Trump in 2020, and it ties into Republican candidates’ focus this year on crime and the migrant crisis.
“If the Democrats win the House of Representatives, I promise you, it will be New York City, LA and Chicago that will control this nation,” said Mike LiPetri, a former state assemblyman who is challenging Rep. Tom Suozzi, the Democrat who won a special election and flipped the 3rd District earlier this year. “When we get out there, when we vote Republican, we will finally have the control. We will have our voices of common sense and we will prevail.”
Starting gate
Daaaaaad: Some Republicans running in competitive House and Senate districts are leaning into their identities as “girl dads” to win over women voters.
Historical twofer? There’s one Black woman in the Senate, California’s Laphonza Butler, but her term ends in January. The next Congress, however, could have two Black women senators for the first time ever if Democrats win open seats in Delaware and Maryland. Those candidates, Delaware Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, last week talked about what that historical feat might mean, CQ Roll Call’s Nina Heller reports.
Origin story: A fifth grade class trip to City Hall in Newark, N.J., sparked the political drive of LaMonica McIver, who went on to be City Council president before winning a special election Wednesday to serve the remainder of the late Rep. Donald M. Payne Jr.’s term, CQ Roll Call’s Jackie Wang reports.
Trump attempt: The Secret Service is once again fielding questions after a second Trump assassination scare, this one after agents fired at an armed individual near where the former president was playing golf in Florida. CQ Roll Call’s Chris Johnson and John T. Bennett had all the angles covered.
It’s spelled ‘f-a-r-t-l-e-k’: Before he leaves the newsroom, politics editor Herb Jackson chatted with Editor-in-Chief Jason Dick on this week’s Political Theater podcast about memorable moments at CQ Roll Call and doing this thing we do — with an unavoidable dose of New Jersey references.
ICYMI
Base appeal: As she continues to face criticism for not doing more interviews, Harris did take questions from a panel at an event organized by the National Association of Black Journalists, Bennett reports. The next day, she warned of massive detention camps if Trump wins in an appearance before a Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute conference.
Water woes: Republican Rep. John Duarte of California, who is among the most vulnerable members of the House, is focused on his district’s water troubles. The freshman lawmaker tells Roll Call’s Jim Saksa that he doesn’t believe the West’s water strains are caused by climate change but said he believes they are the product of other choices made by policymakers.
Poll watch: Multiple polls of the critical state of Pennsylvania hit this week, and the one thing that’s clear is the Harris-Trump race is within the margin of error. A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll had Harris up by 4 points and a Franklin & Marshall poll had Harris up by 3 points, The Washington Post had her ahead by 1, Marist had a tie and Emerson College/The Hill had Trump up by 1. The same polls had a much bigger variance in results in the Senate contest between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and challenger Dave McCormick.
Ad wars: Curtis Hertel, the Democrat running for the Michigan seat that Rep. Elissa Slotkin is vacating to run for Senate, launched his first ad focused on abortion on Thursday, featuring a testimonial from a woman who said she “would have died” when her uterus ruptured while pregnant for the second time. The Congressional Leadership Fund released an ad targeting Hertel on Wednesday, saying he got a “politically connected payday.”
Talking the 5th: Daniela joined Nathan and Jacob Rubashkin on the Inside Elections podcast to discuss the race in Connecticut’s 5th District between Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes and GOP challenger George Logan.
DSCC angling: New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is seeking to helm the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm for the 2026 cycle, Axios reports. Gillibrand is up for reelection this year, and the committee’s current chair, Sen. Gary Peters, will be on the ballot in 2026.
#MI10: House Majority PAC launched its first ad targeting Michigan Rep. John James, a freshman who faces a rematch with Democrat Carl Marlinga.
What we’re reading
Columnist corner: With universal agreement that the presidential race is going to be close, contrarian Stu Rothenberg wonders if it’s time to bet a few dollars on a “clear and convincing win for Harris.” David Winston takes aim at three long-held campaign beliefs that should be retired, while Mary C. Curtis measured the vibe at a Harris rally in Charlotte, N.C.
Graham goes to Nebraska: South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham was in Nebraska on Wednesday to talk to Republican legislators about a proposal to allocate the state’s Electoral College votes on a winner-take-all basis, a move that would potentially net an additional vote for Republican nominee Trump. “The things that were discussed by the governor and also [Graham] were just the costs involved in having an extension of the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris administration,” state Sen. Loren Lippincott told KOLN in Lincoln.
Messaging contest: In New Mexico’s 2nd District, freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez has focused on reproductive rights in his rematch against former Rep. Yvette Herrell, who has emphasized illegal immigration and “migrant crime” in the campaign, The New York Times reports. The race is a microcosm of the top issues both parties are trying to emphasize this year.
A new Trump: Clips of Barron Trump, the Republican presidential nominee’s 18-year-old son, going to class at NYU are all over TikTok, reports Makena Kelly for Wired. Kelly writes, “These posts have garnered millions of views and look like paparazzi shots.”
The count: 18 points
That’s how much bigger support for an abortion rights amendment to the Missouri Constitution was than support for the Democratic candidate for Senate, providing new evidence that Democrats were wrong if they expected abortion questions on state ballots to fuel wins for candidates in red states. The Emerson College poll of 850 likely voters taken Sept. 12-13 found 58 percent planned to vote “yes” on a ballot measure “to provide the right for reproductive freedom,” but only 40 percent supported Democratic Senate candidate Lucas Kunce, who is challenging GOP incumbent Josh Hawley. Hawley had 51 percent support in the poll, while 30 percent planned to vote “no” on the ballot question. In the presidential matchup, Trump led Harris 53 percent to 40 percent.
Nathan’s notes
The path to Republican control of the House and Senate next year is easier to see after Nathan made some ratings changes at Inside Elections.
Key race: #IA03
Candidates: Two military veterans with degrees from Drake University are battling in a closely watched race in south-central Iowa. Republican Rep. Zach Nunn, a former Air Force officer and state lawmaker, is seeking a second term against Democrat Lanon Baccam, who is the son of refugees from Laos and served in Afghanistan as a member of the Iowa National Guard before working for the federal Agriculture Department.
Why it matters: The contest is in one of the Hawkeye State’s two competitive districts, and it could determine the balance of power in the House. Nunn flipped the seat in 2022, when he defeated two-term Democrat Cindy Axne by fewer than 2,200 votes, and Democrats say the seat and others in the Midwest could help the party retake the chamber. A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll found surging optimism among Democrats for Harris, a trend the party hopes will boost down-ballot candidates like Baccam.
Cash dash: Nunn had $2.4 million on hand as of June 30 to Baccam’s $1.6 million. But outside groups are already spending heavily in the race, and both candidates will receive a boost from their respective parties. The NRCC is running an ad that seeks to tie Baccam to Biden and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Meanwhile, the House Majority PAC, which backs Democrats, has produced an ad hitting Nunn on abortion.
Backers: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Nunn this week, calling him “a champion for small business.” Nunn had the backing of Trump in 2022, but the former president hasn’t publicly endorsed him this cycle. (Earlier this year, Nunn criticized Trump’s comments that he might “encourage” Russia to attack U.S. NATO allies.) Baccam has the support of the New Democratic Action Fund, the campaign arm of the center-left New Democratic Coalition in Congress, as well as the Asian American Action Fund. He was also endorsed by the Iowa Federation of Labor and U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, a former Iowa governor.
What they’re saying: The Democrats are focusing their attacks on Nunn’s stance on abortion. Iowa’s abortion ban, which prohibits the procedure after six weeks of pregnancy, took effect in July. They have also criticized Nunn for failing to sign a pledge to certify the results of the election. The GOP has hit Baccam on immigration policy and sought to link him to Biden after he removed several posts on X that expressed support for the president earlier this year, before Biden dropped his reelection bid. Both candidates are highlighting their biographies and military service.
Terrain: The district includes a wide swath of central Iowa, reaching from Des Moines to the Missouri border. Biden lost the district by less than half a percentage point. Inside Elections rates the race Tilt Republican.
Wild card: This week, The Associated Press reports on the emergence of unexpected far-right candidates in closely watched House contests, including Iowa’s 3rd District. A group called the Patriots Run Project recruited Joe Wiederien, a staunch Trump supporter who submitted enough signatures to qualify for the ballot as an independent alternative to Nunn. The project appears to have ties to Democrats, with the apparent aim of siphoning Republican votes away from Nunn. It’s unclear what the impact will be, but the GOP is crying foul and accusing Democrats of dirty tricks.
Coming up
If you just can’t wait for the never-ending campaign to end, in-person early voting begins Friday in Virginia.
Photo finish
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