Oscar Predictions: Best Director — 24 Years After Losing for ‘Gladiator,’ Could Ridley Scott Get His Due for the Sequel?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2025 Oscars Predictions:

Best Director

Weekly Commentary (Updated July 31, 2024): Ridley Scott’s historical epic “Gladiator” (2000) won best picture at the 73rd Academy Awards; however, the English-born filmmaker was bested in the Best Director category by Steven Soderbergh for “Traffic.” Now, 24 years later, Scott is bringing his long-awaited sequel to the screen under the Paramount Pictures banner, with stars Paul Mescal, Denzel Washington, and Pedro Pascal. The early buzz surrounding the film has cinephiles and Oscar pundits buzzing with excitement.

Among the pantheon of auteur filmmakers, Scott has long stood near the top of the list of most overdue veterans in the industry, with three career nominations. His previous nods include “Thelma & Louise” (1991) and “Black Hawk Down” (2001), both of which did not receive best picture nods.

We’ve been here before, with the promise of a new Scott film that could shake up the Oscar race. In past “blind predictions” pieces, I’ve staked my claim on films like “The Counselor” (2013) and “House of Gucci” (2021), only to see them fall incredibly short of delivering his long-coveted statuette.

In recent years, it’s fair to say that Scott’s consistency in critical and audience reception has wavered. For every well-received film like “American Gangster” (2007) and “The Martian” (2015), both of which garnered major Oscar nominations, there have been misfires such as “Robin Hood” (2010) and “Exodus: Gods and Kings” (2013). Still, something about the buzz for “Gladiator II” feels different. Even if it primarily plays in the craft categories, directors like Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”) and Alfonso Cuarón (“Gravity”) have shown that such films can grant you a trip to the Dolby Theatre stage.

By the time nominations are announced, Scott will be 87. If nominated, he would become the oldest directing nominee, surpassing Martin Scorsese, who was 81 when nominated for “Killers of the Flower Moon” (2023). Looking at Oscar history, there’s precedent for a director whose original film won the picture but who director, to return with a sequel and claim the helming prize. Francis Ford Coppola achieved this when “The Godfather” (1972) won the top award but lost director to Bob Fosse (“Cabaret”). Coppola returned two years later with “The Godfather Part II” (1974) and was among the six Oscars won on the night.

This year, other esteemed filmmakers are also vying for their first Oscars. Steve McQueen, whose “12 Years a Slave” (2013) won Best Picture, could be in the running with his World War II film “Blitz.” French master Jacques Audiard is angling for his first career Oscar nomination at 72 for the Cannes hit “Emilia Perez.” James Mangold hopes to earn his first directing nomination for the Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown,” after missing out for “Walk the Line” (2005). Over 20 years have passed since Pedro Almodóvar received his surprise directing nomination for “Talk to Her” (2003), and he could make a splash with his English-language debut “The Room Next Door.”

The race is long and early in its gestational period. Still, it’s already shaping up to be an exciting season to watch unfold.

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** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.

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