2024 Tour Championship odds, predictions, field: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy picks from proven golf model

Only 30 golfers remain in the hunt for the 2024 Tour Championship, with several climbing into the field last week and others falling out. Keegan Bradley made the biggest move with his win in the BMW Championship, jumping from No. 50 to No. 4 in the FedEx Cup standings. Justin Thomas barely snuck into the 2024 Tour Championship field at No. 30 in the standings, which means he will be 10 strokes behind No. 1 Scottie Scheffler to open the tournament when play begins Thursday at 11:16 a.m. ET. Starting strokes have been assigned to every golfer in the field based on their position in the standings, but Scheffler has been unable to hang onto his starting strokes lead in each of the last two years.

Scheffler is the +100 favorite (risk $100 to win $100) in the 2024 Tour Championship odds, while Xander Schauffele is +220. Schauffele is starting two strokes behind Scheffler, so does he have any value when it comes to 2024 Tour Championship bets?Before locking in your 2024 Tour Championship picks or PGA props, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters — its third Masters in a row — and this year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns. 

Now with the Tour Championship 2024 field set, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 Tour Championship golf predictions 

One surprise: McIlroy, a four-time major champion and one of the top favorites, does not crack the top five this week. McIlroy is starting six strokes behind Scheffler this week, which was also the case when the Northern Irishman won the 2022 Tour Championship. He was in much better form overall that season though, posting 10 top-10 finishes and three wins in 16 events played.

McIlroy only has six top-10 finishes in 18 tournaments this season, and he has only won one individual event. He has failed to crack the top 10 in three of his last four tournaments, missing the cut at the Open Championship while finishing T68 in the first leg of the playoffs. SportsLine’s model does not trust McIlroy’s current form, suggesting that bettors fade the three-time Tour Championship winner. 

The model has also examined where Schauffele finishes. Prior to this season, the best results of Schauffele’s career came when he won the 2017 Tour Championship and the gold medal at the 2020 Summer Olympics. The 30-year-old finally broke through at major championships this season, winning the PGA Championship and the Open Championship this summer.

He became the first golfer to win multiple majors in the same year since Brooks Koepka in 2018, and now he will take aim at the second Tour Championship victory of his career. Schauffele is second in the FedEx Cup standings, so he will start the tournament two strokes behind Scheffler. With five top-five finishes at the Tour Championship over the last six years, Schauffele has to be considered for Tour Championship bets. The model just locked in its Xander Schauffele Tour Championship picks here.

How to make 2024 Tour Championship picks

The model has revealed where Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele finish, along with identifying three golfers with odds of 35-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.  

Who will win the 2024 Tour Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the Tour Championship 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected Tour Championship leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters, the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open.

2024 Tour Championship starting scores, odds to win 

Get full 2024 Tour Championship picks, best bets and predictions here.

Scottie Scheffler (-10) +100

Xander Schauffele (-8) +220

Hideki Matsuyama (-7) +1200

Keegan Bradley (-6) +3000

Ludvig Åberg (-5) +1600

Rory McIlroy (-4) +1800

Collin Morikawa (-4) +3500

Wyndham Clark (-4) +4000

Sam Burns (-4) +3500

Patrick Cantlay (-4) +4000

Sungjae Im (-3) +9000

Sahith Theegala (-3) +20000

Shane Lowry (-3) +20000

Adam Scott (-3) +12500

Tony Finau (-3) +9000

Byeong Hun An (-2) +35000

Viktor Hovland (-2) +7000

Russell Henley (-2) +12500

Akshay Bhatia (-2) +35000

Robert MacIntyre (-2) +35000

Billy Horschel (-1) +20000

Tommy Fleetwood (-1) +10000

Sepp Straka (-1) +40000

Matthieu Pavon (-1) +75000

Taylor Pendrith (-1) +40000

Chris Kirk (E) +50000

Tom Hoge (E) +50000

Aaron Rai (E) +50000

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (E) +50000

Justin Thomas (E) +30000