Just how consequential was Biden’s poor debate performance? We will find out in the next 72 to 96 hours. Based on the number of panicked texts and emails I received from various leaders in the Democratic Party, there is a lot more consternation about Biden’s running for a second term than I’ve heard since he took his first oath in 2021.
Here are a few things to watch in the next few days.
1. How does Team Biden calm the Democratic waters?
The obvious answer is to flood the zone with Biden, signing him up for interviews with multiple outlets, from the Sunday shows to Jon Stewart and everything in between. Whether he’s up to it or not, they may have no choice but to put him out there if they want to shore up the nervous nellies.
2. What Democrats step up and defend Biden as staying on as the nominee?
The two Democrats I’m most intrigued to hear from are former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former President Barack Obama. They are, arguably, the two most influential Democrats not named Joe Biden right now, and if they went public saying, “Thank you for your service but it’s time for new blood,” I’m not sure Biden could survive as the nominee.
Of course, they are also the two Democrats Team Biden needs the most right now to go public and calm the waters. The most influential donors who are nervous about Biden will follow the lead of Pelosi and Obama on this. One way or another, I expect to hear from them. The longer it takes for them to rally around Biden publicly, the more the Democratic chattering class will start talking about a convention scenario.
When Ronald Reagan had his poor first debate performance, he didn’t have to wait nearly three months for a second bite at the apple. But before folks start looking up the rules of an open convention, expect the Biden campaign to remind many of us of the Reagan comeback. His best hope right now is that the country is so polarized that the debate barely moves the poll needle. That having been said, the biggest problem Biden has right now is that, at best, he’s a good six weeks away from being able to have a chance to prove the growing number of doubters wrong. It could be the start of a long, hot summer of intrigue inside the Democratic Party.
