Final Oscars Predictions: Live Action Short – Pedro Pascal and Ethan Hawke’s Star Power Could Push Pedro Almodóvar’s ‘Strange Way of Life’ to Nomination

By temporary On Jan 24, 2024 45

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2023 Oscars Predictions:

Best Live Action Short

Weekly Commentary (Updated Jan. 22, 2024): Many filmmakers who helm shorts and other independent films don’t like it when established auteurs and artists come into their space in the shorts categories.

That’s why big names like Wes Anderson (“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”), Pedro Almodóvar (“Strange Way of Life”), Alfonso Cuarón (“The Shepherd”) and David Oyelowo (“The After”) aren’t as guaranteed as many may think, but with three, there’s more in the mix than in previous years.

After getting passed over for “The Human Voice” (2020) with Tilda Swinton, Almodóvar returns with a pair of beloved leading men — Ethan Hawke and Pedro Pascal in his gay western. Referencing Westerns such as Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” as a source of inspiration, the auteur puts his signature imagery on display and, with the backing of Sony Pictures Classics, should be able to fit into the lineup.

After getting snubbed for his powerhouse performances in “Selma” (2014), Oyelowo could finally snag his overdue nomination for producing the Netflix short, “The After.” The streamer is also behind Anderson’s short movie with Benedict Cumberbatch.

“The Anne Frank Gift Shop” has tons of support and could be a viable candidate to win the category if recognized, while producer Alfonso Cuarón could squeak in for “The Shepherd” after landing a nom for the short “Le Pupille.”

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

Listed producer credits are not final, and all releases are subject to change. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

“Strange Way of Life” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Pedro Almodóvar (director), Agustín Almodóvar, Esther García (producers)
“The Anne Frank Gift Shop” (Reboot Studios)

Mickey Rapkin (director), Noam Dromi, Greg Zekowski (producers)
“The After” (Netflix)

Misan Harriman (director), Nicky Bentham, David Oyelowo (producers)
“The Shepherd” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Iain Softley (director), Alfonso Cuarón, Richard Johns, Bill Kenwright, Gabriela Rodriguez (producers)
“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” (Netflix)

Wes Anderson (director, producer), Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales (producers)

Next in Line

“Red, White and Blue” (Distributor TBA)

Nazrin Choudhury (director, producer), Sara McFarlane
“Bienvenidos a Los Angeles” (3rd Astronaut)

Lisa Cole (director, producer), Lolia Etomi, Cindy Lu, Jolene Mendes, Benjamin O’Keefe, Vivian Johnson (producers)
“Invincible” (H264 Distribution)

Vincent René-Lortie (director), Samuel Caron (producer)
“The One Note Man” (Cusp Films)

George Siougas (director, producer), Luke Carroll, Michael Stevenson (producers)
“Knight of Fortune” (Jalabert Production)

Lasse Lyskjær Noer (director), Kim Magnusson, Christian Norlyk (producers)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized) **

“The After”
“The Anne Frank Gift Shop”
“An Avocado Pit”
“Bienvenidos a Los Angeles”
“Dead Cat”
“Good Boy”
“Invincible”
“Invisible Border”
“Knight of Fortune”
“The One Note Man”
“Red, White and Blue”
“The Shepherd”
“Strange Way of Life”
“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
“Yellow”

2022 category winner: “An Irish Goodbye” — Tom Berkeley and Ross White

Oscars Predictions Categories

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.