While the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara and the Braves’ Spencer Strider have been two of MLB’s better pitchers, neither is pitching to his capabilities right now.
You know about Alcantara, who won the NL Cy Young a season ago, but he looks like a shell of his old self.
He also has struggled against the Braves, allowing 11 earned runs in his past 15 ²/₃ innings against the division rival.
You might not know about Strider. While he has pitched to an expected ERA, his batted-ball profile looks horrendous, resulting in two recent blowup starts: five earned runs versus the Tigers, eight against the Mets.
Marlins vs. Braves pick
(1:35 p.m. Eastern)
Strider effectively only throws two pitches, a fastball and a slider, so if his stuff isn’t top-notch, opposing hitters can sit on one of his pitches and send it a mile. His fastball velocity has recently dropped, making his life as a two-pitch pitcher much more difficult.
The betting public may see this pitching matchup and automatically bet the Under, but these are two obvious fade candidates for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, these are two good lineups. The Braves boast the best offense in baseball — including an insane 1.025 OPS over the past two weeks — and the Marlins have quietly been an above-average offense all year.
Four of the past five meetings between Atlanta and Miami have hit the Over.
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Between Alcantara, Strider and these two offenses, I’m predicting an electric, high-scoring affair.
Take the Over 8.5 runs and play it to Over 9.5.
Our pick
Over 9.5 runs (PointsBet)
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