Oscar Predictions: Best Actor – Austin Butler’s ‘Elvis’ and Brendan Fraser’s ‘Whale’ Among the Transformational Hopefuls in the Running
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UPDATED: August 13, 2022
2023 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ACTOR
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:
The fall festival circuit is weeks from kicking off where we’ll get first looks at “The Whale” with Brendan Fraser, “The Son” with Hugh Jackman and “White Noise” with Adam Driver. Pundits and critics are already well aware that names like Austin Butler from “Elvis,” Bill Nighy from “Living” and perhaps even Tom Cruise from “Top Gun: Maverick” will be in the discussion.
Transformational performances could take center stage with the likes of Butler and Fraser from their films as they play real-life people.
“The Inspection” was named as the closing film for New York Film Festival, and in its midst is said to be an awards-worthy performance from Jeremy Pope, and then there’s the possible double dose of Christian Bale this year with Scott Cooper’s “The Pale Blue Eye” and David O. Russell’s “Amsterdam.”
Plenty more to come.
Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Oscars Predictions Hub
Check out the latest predictions rankings below.
Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub
2022 category winner: Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
Bill Nighy in ‘Living’
Ross Ferguson
| And The Predicted Nominees Are: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Name | Film | Distributor |
| 1 | Hugh Jackman | “The Son” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| Peter as his busy life with new partner Emma and their baby is thrown into disarray when his ex-wife Kate turns up with their teenage son, Nicholas. | |||
| 2 | Brendan Fraser | “The Whale” | A24 |
| A reclusive English teacher suffering from severe obesity attempts to reconnect with his estranged teenage daughter for one last chance at redemption. | |||
| 3 | Bill Nighy | “Living” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| An English-language adaptation of the script of “Ikiru” (1952), set in London in the 1950s. | |||
| 4 | Daniel Giménez Cacho | “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” | Netflix |
| The film explores the political and social modernity of Mexico. | |||
| 5 | Austin Butler | “Elvis” | Warner Bros |
| Biopic of Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker. | |||
| Next in Line | |||
| 6 | Adam Driver | “White Noise” | Netflix |
| “White Noise” dramatizes a contemporary American family’s attempts to deal with the mundane conflicts of everyday life while grappling with the universal mysteries of love, death, and the possibility of happiness in an uncertain world. | |||
| 7 | Christian Bale | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| Set in the ’30s, it follows three friends who witness a murder, become suspects themselves, and uncover one of the most outrageous plots in American history. | |||
| 8 | Song Kang-ho | “Broker” | Neon |
| Boxes that are left out for people to anonymously drop off their unwanted babies. | |||
| 9 | Tom Cruise | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures |
| After more than thirty years of service as one of the Navy’s top aviators, Pete Mitchell is where he belongs, pushing the envelope as a courageous test pilot and dodging the advancement in rank that would ground him. | |||
| 10 | Jeremy Pope | “The Inspection” | A24 |
| Based on the life of filmmaker and Marine Corps veteran Elegance Bratton. | |||
| Other Top-Tier Contenders | |||
| 11 | Colin Farrell | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| 12 | Christian Bale | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Netflix |
| 13 | Colin Firth | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| 14 | Harry Styles* | “My Policeman” | Amazon Studios |
| 15 | Diego Calva | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| 16 | Winston Duke* | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| 17 | Jim Parsons | “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” | Focus Features |
| 18 | Paul Mescal | “Aftersun” | A24 |
| 19 | Eddie Redmayne | “The Good Nurse” | Netflix |
| 20 | Adam Sandler | “Hustle” | Netflix |
| Also In Contention | |||
| 21 | Patton Oswalt | “I Love My Dad” | Magnolia Pictures |
| 22 | Tom Hanks | “A Man Called Otto” | Sony Pictures |
| 23 | Harris Dickinson | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon |
| 24 | Billy Eichner | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| 25 | Mehdi Bajestani | “Holy Spider” | Utopia |
| 26 | Ewan McGregor* | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| 27 | Daniel Craig | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| 28 | Kelvin Harrison Jr. | “Chevalier” | Searchlight Pictures |
| 29 | Mark Rylance | “The Phantom of the Open” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| 30 | Park Hae-il | “Decision to Leave” | Mubi |
| Other Awards Possibilities | |||
| 31 | Daniel Kaluuya | “Nope” | Universal Pictures |
| 32 | Sam Worthington | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| 33 | Daryl McCormack | “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande” | Searchlight Pictures |
| 34 | Caleb Landry Jones | “Nitram” | IFC Films |
| 35 | Ricardo Darín | “Argentina, 1985” | Amazon Studios |
| 36 | Viggo Mortensen | “Crimes of the Future” | Neon |
| 37 | Zac Efron | “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” | Apple Original Films |
| 38 | Cooper Raiff | “Cha Cha Real Smooth” | Apple Original Films |
| 39 | Jack O’Connell | “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” | Netflix |
| 40 | Ben Kingsley | “Dalíland” | No U.S. Distribution |
| Unranked Possible Contenders | |||
| — | Aaron Pierre* | “Brother” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Adam Sandler | “Hustle” | Netflix |
| — | Adam Sandler | “Spaceman” | Netflix |
| — | Alexander Skarsgård | “The Northman” | Focus Features |
| — | Antonio Banderas | “Official Competition” | IFC Films |
| — | Austin Butler | “Elvis” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Ben Kingsley | “Dalíland” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Benedict Cumberbatch | “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Bill Nighy | “Living” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Billy Eichner | “Bros” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Brad Pitt | “Bullet Train” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Brad Pitt* | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Brendan Fraser | “The Whale” | A24 |
| — | Brendan Gleeson* | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Brian Cox | “Prisoner’s Daughter” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Caleb Landry Jones | “Nitram” | IFC Films |
| — | Casey Affleck | “Dreamin’ Wild” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Channing Tatum | “Dog” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Chris Evans | “The Gray Man” | Netflix |
| — | Chris Evans | “Lightyear” | Pixar |
| — | Chris Hemsworth | “Thor: Love and Thunder” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Christian Bale | “Amsterdam” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Christian Bale | “The Pale Blue Eye” | Netflix |
| — | Colin Farrell | “After Yang” | A24 |
| — | Colin Farrell | “The Banshees of Inisherin” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Colin Firth* | “Empire of Light” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Cooper Raiff | “Cha Cha Real Smooth” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Daniel Craig | “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix |
| — | Daniel Giménez Cacho | “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” | Netflix |
| — | Daniel Kaluuya | “Nope” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Daryl McCormack | “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | David Earl | “Brian and Charles” | Focus Features |
| — | Diego Calva | “Babylon” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Dwayne Johnson | “Black Adam” | Warner Bros |
| — | Eddie Redmayne | “The Good Nurse” | Netflix |
| — | Eden Dambrine | “Close” | A24 |
| — | Elio Germano | “Il Signore Delle Formiche” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Ethan Hawke* | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Ewan McGregor* | “Raymond & Ray” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Finn Wolfhard | “When You Finish Saving the World” | A24 |
| — | Gabrielle LaPelle | “The Fabelmans” | Universal Pictures |
| — | George Clooney | “Ticket to Paradise” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Géza Röhrig | “The Way of the Wind” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Gregory Mann | “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” | Netflix |
| — | Harris Dickinson | “Triangle of Sadness” | Neon |
| — | Harry Styles | “My Policeman” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Hugh Jackman | “The Son” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Idris Elba | “Three Thousand Years of Longing” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Jack O’Connell | “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” | Netflix |
| — | Jake Gyllenhaal | “Ambulance” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Jalyn Hall* | “Till” | Orion/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Ji-Min Park | “Return to Seoul” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Jim Parsons | “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” | Focus Features |
| — | Jo Koy | “Easter Sunday” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Joel Edgerton | “The Stranger” | Transmission Films |
| — | Joshua Boone* | “A Jazzman’s Blues” | Netflix |
| — | Justin Chatwin | “The Walk” | Vertical Entertainment |
| — | Kelvin Harrison Jr. | “Chevalier” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Kevin Kline | “The Good House” | Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions |
| — | Lamar Johnson* | “Brother” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Marin Grigore | “R.M.N.” | IFC Films |
| — | Mark Rylance | “The Phantom of the Open” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Matthias Schweighöfer | “The Swimmers” | Netflix |
| — | Mehdi Bajestani | “Holy Spider” | Utopia |
| — | Michael Banks Repeta | “Armageddon Time” | Focus Features |
| — | N.T. Rama Rao Jr. | “RRR” | Raftar Creations |
| — | Nicholas Hoult | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Nicolas Cage | “Butcher’s Crossing” | Saban Films |
| — | Nicolas Cage | “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent” | Lionsgate |
| — | Owen Teague | “Montana Story” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Park Hae-il | “Decision to Leave” | Mubi |
| — | Pascal Greggory | “One Fine Morning” | Sony Pictures Classics |
| — | Patton Oswalt | “I Love My Dad” | Magnolia Pictures |
| — | Paul Mescal | “Aftersun” | A24 |
| — | Ralph Fiennes | “The Forgiven” | Roadside Attractions |
| — | Ralph Fiennes* | “The Menu” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Ricardo Darín | “Argentina, 1985” | Amazon Studios |
| — | RJ Cyler | “Emergency” | Amazon Studios |
| — | Robert Pattinson | “The Batman” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Ryan Gosling | “The Gray Man” | Netflix |
| — | Sam Rockwell | “See How They Run” | Searchlight Pictures |
| — | Sam Worthington | “Avatar: The Way of Water” | 20th Century Studios |
| — | Sebastian Maniscalco | “About My Father” | Lionsgate |
| — | Song Kang-ho | “Broker” | Neon |
| — | Sope Dirisu | “Mr. Malcolm’s List” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Sterling K. Brown | “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul” | Universal Pictures |
| — | Steve Coogan* | “The Lost King” | Warner Bros. |
| — | Taj Atwal | “What’s Love Got to Do With It?” | No U.S. Distribution |
| — | Tim Roth | “Resurrection” | IFC Films |
| — | Timothée Chalamet | “Bones & All” | MGM/United Artists Releasing |
| — | Tom Burke | “The Wonder” | Netflix |
| — | Tom Cruise | “Top Gun: Maverick” | Paramount Pictures |
| — | Tom Hanks | “A Man Called Otto” | Sony Pictures |
| — | Viggo Mortensen | “Crimes of the Future” | Neon |
| — | Vincent Lindon | “Both Side of the Blade” | IFC Films |
| — | Wes Studi | “Love Song” | Bleecker Street |
| — | Will Ferrell | “Spirited” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Will Smith | “Emancipation” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Winston Duke* | “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” | Marvel Studios |
| — | Zac Efron | “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” | Apple Original Films |
| — | Zachary Levi | “Shazam! Fury of the Gods” | Warner Bros. |
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
- Best Picture
- Best Director
- Best Actor
- Best Actress
- Best Supporting Actor
- Best Supporting Actress
- Best Original Screenplay
- Best Adapted Screenplay
- Best Animated Feature
- Best Production Design
- Best Cinematography
- Best Costume Design
- Best Film Editing
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Best Sound
- Best Visual Effects
- Best Original Score
- Best Original Song
- Best Documentary Feature
- Best International Feature
- Best Animated Short
- Best Documentary Short
- Best Live-Action Short
About the Academy Awards (Oscars)
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
- The 95th Oscars ceremony at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC
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