Emmy Predictions: Drama Series – Noms Show the Battle Between Cable and Streamers, But Who Will Win?

By temporary On Jul 26, 2022 58

HBO’s ‘Succession’ is the frontrunner with 25 noms but Netflix’s maxed-out showing for ‘Squid Game’ could be the spoiler

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE EMMYS COLLECTIVE

Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE EMMYS HUB

To see old predictions and commentary, click the EMMY PREDICTIONS ARCHIVESFor film awards predictions go toTHE OSCARS HUB

UPDATED: July 14, 2022

2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:

HBO’s “Succession” leads the nomination tally with 25 noms, including 14 in the acting categories, breaking the record for the most acting nominations for a drama series in a single year (was held by “The West Wing” with 12) and for any series in history (long held by “Roots” with 13).

With such a robust total, you can never assume it’s over, especially when it comes to Emmys. Netflix’s “Squid Game,” a show that premiered in Sept. 2021, maxed-out with its acting noms, nabbing the necessary mentions for SAG winners Lee Jung-jae (lead actor) and Jung Hoyeon (supporting actress), along with Golden Globe winner Oh Yeong-su and Park Hae-soo.

Of the other nominated counterparts, Apple TV+ showed strength with the 14 noms for “Severance,” hoping to emulate the run of Hulu’s “The Handmaid’s Tale” in 2017. With the added boost of bringing in acting nominees Adam Scott, John Turturro and Christopher Walken, this dystopian drama has the chops to go the distance.

The TV Academy made right with its omission of HBO’s “Euphoria” during its first season, showcased by its 16 nom tally, the second most nominated drama of the year. That will undoubtedly translate into Creative Arts categories, and with Zendaya frontrunning in lead actress drama, the show is in the conversation. However, without writing or directing noms, it’ll be a challenging hurdle to overcome.

Showtime’s freshman series “Yellowjackets” had a solid showing, with its stars Melanie Lynskey and Christina Ricci picking up mentions, but unfortunately not having enough momentum to bring in Juliette Lewis or Jasmin Savoy Brown for the ride. However, those double writing noms, along with Karyn Kusama’s directing mention for the pilot, point to the survival drama being the network’s most viable contender since its winning drama “Homeland” back in 2012.

Netflix’s “Stranger Things” returned for its fourth season and continued its run with an impressive 13-nomination haul. While hearts are broken for the omissions of our guitar-rocking Joseph Quinn and the hill-running Sadie Sink, many of its creative arts categories are well within reach of winning, including – outstanding period and/or character hairstyling, period and/or character makeup (non-prosthetic), prosthetic makeup, music supervision, sound editing and sound mixing. Those add up and could make it a dark horse during phase two, but with no acting, writing or directing noms, this could be another consumer-facing hopeful that’s “too cool for school” (i.e., “The Mandalorian”).

Finally, AMC’s “Better Call Saul” has had a perfect run, picking up six noms for outstanding drama series, including this first part of its final sixth season. Tied for the series with the most noms for drama series (alongside “Hill Street Blues,” “L.A. Law,” “NYPD Blue” and “St. Elsewhere”), with a series total of 46 mentions, it’s never walked away with a single statuette. Could that final season sentiment do the trick?

All listed producers are not yet official. The TV Academy will determine the official nominees for each of the series.

Who got snubbed: “This Is Us” (NBC) and “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)

Who should have been a contender: “As We See It” (Amazon Prime Video) and “Star Trek: Strange New Worlds” (Paramount+)

The complete Emmy nominations list for 2022.

The submission videos will be available on August 8 before the final round of voting begins on Aug. 12. Voting ends on Aug 22 at 10:00 PM PST. The entire television awards season calendar is linked here. The 2022 Creative Arts Emmys Awards will take place Sept. 3-4 at 5:00 PM PST and air on FXX on Sept 10. In addition, the 74th Emmy Awards will air on NBC on Monday, Sept 12.

2021 category winner: “The Crown” (Netflix)

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Nominees Are:
Rank	TV Series	Network	Producers
1	“Succession”	HBO	Jesse Armstrong, Adam McKay, Will Ferrell, Frank Rich, Kevin Messick, Mark Mylod, Jane Tranter, Tony Roche, Scott Ferguson, Jon Brown, Lucy Prebble, Will Tracy
1	Key facts: 25 nominations in 2022, 48 total series nominations, the most of any series nominated. With 14 acting noms, it broke the record for most acting nominations for any series in Emmy history. It has won nine total Emmys thus far including outstanding drama series in 2020. HBO has the fourth most wins for drama series with seven, behind NBC (21), CBS (18) and ABC (9), and the highest for any premium cable network.
2	“Squid Game”	Netflix	Hwang Dong-hyuk, Kim Jiyeon
2	Key facts: 14 nominations in 2022 for its first season including directing, writing and five for acting. Its the first non-English language series ever nominated. Netflix has won this category once with “The Crown” in 2021, sweeping all the major categories. It’s also the first streamer to land three drama series noms, in three separate years.
3	“Severance”	Apple TV+	Ben Stiller, Nicholas Weinstock, Jackie Cohn, Mark Friedman, Dan Erickson, Andrew Colville, Chris Black, John Cameron, Adam Scott, Patricia Arquette, Aoife McArdle, Amanda Overton, Gerry Robert Byrne
3	Key facts: 14 nominations in 2022 for its inaugural season including directing, writing and four major acting categories. It’s the show from Apple TV+ to receive a nom for drama series.
4	“Ozark”	Netflix	Jason Bateman, Bill Dubuque, Patrick Markey, Chris Mundy, Mark Williams, Matthew Spiegel, Paul Kolsby, John Shiban, Laura Deeley, Wes Hagan, Laura Linney, Dana Scott, Ning Zhou, Juanita Diana Feeney, David Manson, Peter Thorell, Tudor Jones
4	Key facts: 13 nominations in 2022 for its final season. Has garnered 45 nominations in total across the entire series. The crime drama has won three Emmys including directing (drama) for Jason Bateman and two for supporting actress (drama) for Julia Garner.
5	“Yellowjackets”	Showtime	Jonathan Lisco, Ashley Lyle, Bart Nickerson, Drew Comins, Karyn Kusama, Liz Phang, Jamie Travis, Brad Van Arragon, Jamie Travis, Sarah L. Thompson, Ameni Rozsa, Ani Arutyunyan
5	Key facts: Seven nominations for its inaugural season including directing, two writing noms and two major acting categories. It’s the first Showtime series to be nominated for outstanding drama since “Homeland” in 2016, and third overall (also includes “Dexter”). Also the first of the three to have a female creator (Ashley Lyle, alongside Bart Nickerson).
6	“Euphoria”	HBO	Sam Levinson, Kevin Turen, Ravi Nandan, Drake, Adel “Future” Nur, Ron Leshem, Daphna Levin, Hadas Mozes Lichtenstein, Gary Lennon, Mirit Toovi, Tmira Yardeni, Yoram Mokadi, Jim Kleverweis, Zendaya, Will Greenfield, Ashley Levinson, Hunter Schafer, Tyler Romary, Philipp A. Barnett, Jamie Feldman, Kenneth Yu, Harrison Kreiss
6	Key facts: 16 nominations in 2022 for its second season. Stands at 25 total noms across the series history. Its won three prizes so far including lead actress (drama) for Zendaya, the youngest woman ever to win the race. With four total noms this year, Zendaya is the youngest producer ever nominated, second Black woman to nab four noms in the same year, and the first to be nominated for drama series and acting, and acting and songwriting, in the same year.
7	“Stranger Things”	Netflix	The Duffer Brothers, Shawn Levy, Dan Cohen, Cindy Holland, Brian Wright, Matt Thunell, Karl Gajdusek, Iain Paterson, Curtis Gwinn
7	Key facts: 13 nominations in 2022 for the seven episode fourth season (Vol. 1), the two episodes of Vol. 2 are not included in this submission. Its Emmy nom series total stands at 51, the most of the drama series that are nominated this year. It’s won seven Emmy statuettes so far. Network streamer Netflix has won drama series once with “The Crown” in 2020.
8	“Better Call Saul”	AMC	Vince Gilligan, Peter Gould, Mark Johnson, Melissa Bernstein, Thomas Schnauz, Gennifer Hutchison, Diana Mercer, Alison Tatlock, Michael Morris, Bob Odenkirk, Nina Jack, Diane Mercer, Robin Sweet, Gordon Smith, Jonathan Glatzer
8	Key facts: Seven nominations in 2022 for Part 1 of the sixth season which includes seven episodes. Part 2 that debuted on July 11 will be eligible in 2023. The series stands at 46 total noms but has yet to win a statuette yet. Currently tied for the third most noms for drama series with six. Network AMC has won drama series six times with “Breaking Bad” and “Mad Men.”

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Drama Series)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television’s most prestigious artistic award.

For wins: HBO’s “Game of Thrones” holds the record for most wins for a series in a single year with 12 (in 2015, 2016 and 2019), most collective wins for a drama series with 59 (across eight seasons), most wins for a single episode with six (for “Battle of the Bastards” in 2016) and most wins for a series and drama series in its final season with 12 (in 2019). “Game of Thrones” is also tied for most wins for outstanding drama series with four – along with “Hill Street Blues,” “L.A. Law,” “Mad Men” and “The West Wing.” “Hill Street Blues,” “Mad Men” and “The West Wing” won their four awards consecutively. “The West Wing” also holds the record for most wins in its first season with nine, while it shares the record for most wins for acting across an entire drama series at nine, along with “Breaking Bad” and “The Sopranos.” Netflix’s “The Crown” is the only series to sweep all the major categories in 2020, winning all four acting races, writing and directing.

Four shows have won this category three times: “The Defenders,” “Dragnet,” “Playhouse 90,” which all won consecutively, and “Upstairs, Downstairs.”

For nominations: “Game of Thrones” holds the record for most nominations overall for an entire drama series with 161. It also has the most nominations for a drama series in a single year and its final season with 32 (2019). AMC’s “Mad Men” holds the record for the most nominations without a win in a single year, going zero for 17 (in 2012). “NYPD Blue” holds the record for most nominations in its first season at 27 (in 1994), while “Law & Order” has the record for most nominations ever for an entire drama series at 11.

For networks, NBC has the most wins in this category with 21, with CBS following with 18. Hulu and Netflix are the only streaming services to win this category, with “The Handmaid’s Tale” in 2017 and “The Crown” in 2020.

2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions

2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions

About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.

The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.