Is the Democrat Party on the rebound heading into November’s mid-term elections? If the latest CBS News poll is any indication, the answer is a resounding “no.”
Despite proclamations that Joe Biden is “back in the game” and that the left is enjoying a bump following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the survey provides red flag after red flag for Democrats. And while the CBS News shows have spent Sunday morning trying their hardest to spin the findings by focusing heavily on female opposition to Republicans over abortion, even that “good news” for Democrats is tempered by a lack of enthusiasm.
CBS NEWS POLL: There’s a gender gap on enthusiasm: Women are LESS likely than men to say they’re very ENTHUSIASTIC about voting. pic.twitter.com/1TXI0GuEqb
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 31, 2022
CBS NEWS POLL: Younger voters and Turnout: a problem for Dems?
Younger voters are the most supportive of Democrats – and the LEAST LIKELY TO TURN OUT. They are LESS likely to be ENTHUSIASTIC about voting than older voters. pic.twitter.com/kcPvbV45jz— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 31, 2022
Every single election cycle, Democrats and their media allies convince themselves that they are going to turn out young voters and shift elections. Every single election cycle, that plan falls flat. It looks like that’ll happen again in November, with under-30 voters being, by far, the least enthusiastic demographic for the mid-terms.
As to the liberal wine-mom contingent, while they are really big on abortion, they are also suffering from a lack of enthusiasm. And what does a lack of enthusiasm lead to? It leads to decreased turnout, something Democrats can’t afford given their epic collapse among Hispanic voters, which is also reflected in this poll.
CBS POLL: Democrats are ahead with Hispanic voters by a smaller margin compared to recent elections.
Hispanic voters trends
2018 midterms*: D 69%, R 29% (D+40)
2022 midterms: D 45%, R 42% (D+3)*CNN exit poll linkhttps://t.co/zMxrBDcOJ4 pic.twitter.com/URLC83CShz
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 31, 2022
You are reading that correctly. The GOP has closed a 40-point gap with Hispanic voters since 2018, bringing it to just three points in 2022, and there’s every reason to think things could continue to shift further before the votes are cast. Democrats have taken a huge demographic advantage and sacrificed it on the alter of woke-ism over the last two cycles. I hope it was worth it to solidify those gains with suburban white women.
There’s more bad news, though. On the issue of January 6th, no one cares except Democrats.
What about January 6th?
Right now, it’s a big deal with the Democratic base, who are already voting Democratic. 76% of them say it will be very important in their vote, on par with other issues. For Reps, just 15% call it very important. https://t.co/cp45VW0vKA pic.twitter.com/3ZChGfEveb
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) July 31, 2022
If you are asking why 15 percent of Republicans think January 6th is important to their vote, it’s almost certainly because they disapprove of the select committee, and with only 45 percent of independents saying it’s a factor, the issue is just not a gamechanger for Democrats. Further attempts to drag out the hearings all the way until November will likely only lead to further polarization. That’s the corner Democrats have painted themselves into. They’ve obsessed over issues that don’t move the dial, and that will end poorly for them.
As to the overall numbers, CBS News projects the electorate will be four points in the GOP’s favor. That’s an exact flip from what they found in 2018, where Democrats held a four-point advantage.
CBS NEWS ELECTORATE TRENDS
2018: Democrats +4
2022: Republicans+4https://t.co/nv3ehAOF61 pic.twitter.com/LoSdo6uLHn— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 31, 2022
There’s just nothing here for Democrats to hang their hat on. Yes, college-educated white women still love them, but that’s been baked into the cake for a long time now. The shift in the Hispanic vote is going to be massive, putting many seats in play that were thought to favor Democrats. Meanwhile, inflation and the economy continue to be the top issues for voters, and that’s not going to improve significantly anytime soon.
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