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Emmy Predictions: Reality Competition Program – VH1 Goes for Five Consecutive Wins With ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE EMMYS COLLECTIVE

Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE EMMYS HUB

To see old predictions and commentary, click the EMMY PREDICTIONS ARCHIVES

For film awards predictions go toTHE OSCARS HUB

UPDATED: June 21, 2022

2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:

OUTSTANDING REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: 

Reality competition program sees 81 shows, up from 67 last year and up from 60 in the previous. This will give six nominees in the category with shows like last year’s winner “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (VH1), along with last year’s nominees “The Amazing Race” (CBS) and “Top Chef” (Bravo).

Among those new to the race are “Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls” (Amazon Prime Video) and “Queen of the Universe” (Paramount+).

Four wins in a row for VH1’s drag competition program, with RuPaul making history last year as the most awarded person of color at the Emmys. A frontrunner once again for its 14th season, “RuPaul’s Drag Race” is something you can expect to see, especially with those prominent personalities on the stage once again. 

“The Circle,” hosted by the wonderous Michelle Buteau, is as popular as ever, with the fourth season bringing the first LGBTQ winner with Frank Grimsley and the fan-favorite “Bru” Brubaker. Netflix may be able to squeak this one out. 

Fifteen Emmy wins later, the CBS competition show “The Amazing Race,” celebrated over two decades of memorable TV continues to be an Emmy darling, and there’s no indication it will stop anytime soon. 

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TOP CHEF — “Restaurant Wars” Episode 1908 — Pictured: (l-r) Hunter Lewis, Tiffany Derry, Padma Lakshmi, Tom Colicchio, Gail Simmons, Buddah Lo — (Photo by: David Moir/Bravo)
David Moir/Bravo

Nineteen seasons later, Bravo’s culinary contest has impressive numbers, with Padma Lakshmi continuing to gain industry respect. Look for the love for “Top Chef” to continue as it ventures into its 20th season. 

Thirteen women competing to be dancers for music sensation Lizzo’s world tour brought the fierce confidence we like to see on television but are never afforded the opportunity. So Amazon Prime has mounted a loud campaign to get “Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls” recognized, and they might succeed. 

It’s been six years since the TV Academy recognized the once-dominating singing competition “American Idol.” In its fifth-year revival on ABC, can the charms of judges Lionel Richie, Katy Perry and Luke Bryan, with seasoned host Ryan Seacrest, bring it back to the Emmys? 

While singing competition shows have struggled with ratings and TV Academy voters, NBC’s 21st season of “The Voice” was still as big as any other program with coaches Kelly Clarkson (winner with contestant Girl Named Tom), John Legend, Ariana Grande and Blake Shelton. After missing out in 2020, it returned with a nom last year and could pop up again. 

The voguing competition series “Legendary” on HBO Max missed out in this category for its inaugural season but did pick up a pair of creative arts noms. As more discover it, there’s a chance to show up unexpectedly. 

Once one of the biggest shows on television after premiering in 2019, the charm for “The Masked Singer” subsided significantly this year when the producers decided to cast none other than controversial politician Rudy Guiliani, which produced one of the lowest-rated episodes of the series’ history. The TV Academy may pass on the Fox program altogether. 

The bake-off competition series “Nailed It” is popular on Netflix, with host Nicole Byer bringing the laughs and charm to each episode. It’s been nominated in this race before, and this looks like an easy pickup for a nom.

Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub

The nomination round of voting runs from June 16 to June 27. The official nominations for the 74th Emmy Awards will be announced Tuesday, July 12.

The programs and potential nominees listed below are incomplete and subject to change. The complete television awards season calendar is linked here.

2021 category winner: “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (VH1)

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

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Courtesy of Archibald Vienot/Paramount+

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:
RANK SERIES NETWORK
1 “RuPaul’s Drag Race” VH1
2 “Top Chef” Bravo
3 “The Amazing Race” CBS
4 “Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls” Amazon Prime Video
5 “Nailed It!” Netflix
NEXT IN LINE
6 “The Voice” NBC
7 “The Circle” Netflix
8 “Legendary” HBO/HBO Max
9 “The Masked Singer” Fox
10 “American Idol” ABC
ALSO IN CONTENTION
11 “The Challenge: Spies, Lies & Allies” MTV
12 “Survivor” CBS
13 “Tough as Nails” CBS
14 “Making the Cut” Amazon Prime Video
15 “Queen of the Universe” Paramount+
16 “Making It” NBC
17 “LEGO Masters” Fox
18 “Chopped” Food Network
19 “The Bachelor” ABC
20 “American Ninja Warrior” NBC
UNRANKED CONTENDERS
— “12 Dates of Christmas” HBO/HBO Max
— “About Last Night” HBO/HBO Max
— “Alone”
— “Alter Ego”
— “America’s Got Talent” NBC
— “American Song Contest” NBC
— “Bake Squad”
— “Baker’s Dozen”
— “Baking It” NBC
— “Battlebots”
— “Beat Bobby Flay” Food Network
— “Big Brother” CBS
— “Bullsh*t: The Game Show” Netflix
— “Capital One College Bowl”
— “Celebrity Game Face”
— “Clash of the Cover Bands”
— “Come Dance with Me”
— “Crime Scene Kitchen”
— “Dancing with the Stars” ABC
— “Domino Masters”
— “Family Game Night”
— “Fast Foodies”
— “FBOY Island” HBO/HBO Max
— “Finding Magic Mike” HBO/HBO Max
— “Foodstastic”
— “Forged in Fire”
— “Frogger”
— “Full Bloom” HBO/HBO Max
— “Getaway Driver”
— “Go-Big Show”
— “Hell’s Kitchen” Fox
— “Holey Moley”
— “I Can See Your Voice”
— “Joe Millionaire: For Richer or Poorer”
— “Moonshiners: Master Distiller”
— “Name That Tune”
— “Next Level Chef”
— “Penn & Teller: Fool Us”
— “Press Your Luck”
— “Project Runway”
— “Rat in the Kitchen”
— “Rock the Block”
— “School of Chocolate”
— “Snoop & Martha’s Very Tasty Halloween”
— “Sparklers”
— “Supermarket Sweep” ABC
— “Survivor”
— “That’s My Jam” NBC
— “The $100,000 Pyramid”
— “The Bachelorette” ABC
— “The Boulet Brothers’ Dragula”
— “The Celebrity Dating Game”
— “The Challenge: Spies, Lies & Allies”
— “The Chase”
— “The Courtship”
— “The Cube”
— “The Hype” HBO/HBO Max
— “The Wall” ABC
— “The Weakest Link” NBC
— “To Tell the Truth”
— “Tournament of Champions”
— “Weakest Link”
— “Wipeout”
— “Would I Lie to You?”

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Reality Competition Program)

Awards history to be added.

2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions

2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions

About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.

  • The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.

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