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Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor in a Comedy Series – It’s Time for Kayvan Novak’s Emmy Nom for ‘What We Do in the Shadows’

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE EMMYS COLLECTIVE

Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE EMMYS HUB

To see old predictions and commentary, click the EMMY PREDICTIONS ARCHIVES

For film awards predictions go toTHE OSCARS HUB

UPDATED: May 26, 2022

2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:

England-born Kayvan Novak has been a fan-favorite as Nandor the Relentless in the FX hilarious series that surprised many with an Emmy nom in 2020. With Hollywood focusing on more diversity and representation, especially from our AAPI brothers and sisters, the Persian star may have a pocket of support that could land him in a very competitive field.

Eleven Emmy nominations are pretty impressive for any actor, but Don Cheadle’s run has been effortless between limited series, comedies and even guest roles in superhero shows. His Mo Monroe from Showtime’s “Black Monday” has already been recognized twice, and the return of the series could make him a default selection on ballots.

The wait was long, but FX’s “Atlanta” is back for its third and final season, with Donald Glover taking charge once again as Earnest ‘Earn’ Marks. Glover took home two Emmys for the first season for acting and directing, and his farewell run could give him one more chomp at the Emmy bit, but has the wait been too long for the dramedy?

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Courtesy of ABC

Anthony Anderson is a bonafide ballot staple, with seven consecutive nominations since 2015 in this category. (He also has four other noms for his role as executive producer on the ABC family sitcom). So in its farewell season and currently tied as the most nominated Black actor ever in lead actor comedy, he could be a safe bet for recognition.

The wonderful Sam Richardson has already proved his worth with guest spots on shows like “Ted Lasso” and “I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson.” As the Aniq, Richardson is finally given a leading role and one that could be a “throwaway” in the wrong hands. A critical piece of a sprawling ensemble, his work on the Phil Lord and Chris Miller produced mystery series could make a dynamic presence on nomination morning.

Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub

The nomination round of voting runs from June 16 to June 27. The official nominations for the 74th Emmy Awards will be announced Tuesday, July 12.

The list of programs and potential nominees listed below is incomplete and is subject to change. The full television awards season calendar is linked here.

2021 category winner: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

ATLANTA Robbin' Season --

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:
RANK CONTENDER SERIES NETWORK
1 Jason Sudeikis “Ted Lasso” Apple TV+
2 Bill Hader “Barry” HBO/HBO Max
3 Steve Martin “Only Murders in the Building” Hulu
4 Martin Short “Only Murders in the Building” Hulu
5 Donald Glover “Atlanta” FX
6 Anthony Anderson “Black-ish” ABC
NEXT IN LINE
7 Don Cheadle “Black Monday” Showtime
8 Larry David “Curb Your Enthusiasm” HBO/HBO Max
9 Sam Richardson “The Afterparty” Apple TV+
10 Kayvan Novak “What We Do in the Shadows” FX
OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS
11 Nicholas Hoult “The Great” Hulu
12 Kenan Thompson “Kenan” NBC
13 Will Arnett “Murderville” Netflix
14 Matt Berry “What We Do in the Shadows” FX
15 Danny McBride “The Righteous Gemstones” HBO
16 William Zabka “Cobra Kai” Netflix
17 Utkarsh Ambudkar “Ghosts” CBS
18 Ted Danson “Mr. Mayor” NBC
19 Ralph Macchio “Cobra Kai” Netflix
20 Andy Samberg “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” NBC
ALSO IN CONTENTION
21 Greg Kinnear “Shining Vale” Starz
22 Will Forte “MacGruber” Peacock
23 Dave Burd “Dave” FX
24 Keegan-Michael Key “Schmigadoon!” Apple TV+
25 John Cena “Peacemaker” HBO/HBO Max
26 John Goodman “The Conners” ABC
27 Ricky Gervais “After Life” Netflix
28 Rhys Darby “Our Flag Means Death” HBO/HBO Max
29 Drew Tarver “The Other Two” Comedy Central
30 Michael Cimino “Love, Victor” Hulu
UNRANKED CONTENDERS
— Alan Tudyk “Resident Alien” Syfy
— Asa Butterfield “Sex Education” Netflix
— Craig Robinson “Killing It” Peacock
— DeRon Horton “Dear White People” Netflix
— Elisha Williams “The Wonder Years” ABC
— Eugenio Derbez “Acapulco” Apple TV+
— Iain Armitage “Young Sheldon” CBS
— Jake Johnson “Minx” HBO/HBO Max
— Joseph Gordon-Levitt “Mr. Corman” Apple TV+
— Josh Gad “Wolf Like Me” Peacock
— Keir Gilchrist “Atypical” Netflix
— Mark Indelicato “With Love” Amazon Prime Video
— Michael Rapaport “Atypical” Netflix
— Mike Myers “The Pentaverate” Netflix
— Rafe Spall “Trying” Apple TV+
— Robbie Amell “Upload” Amazon Prime Video
— Stephen Merchant “The Outlaws” Amazon Prime Video
— Christopher Walken “The Outlaws” Amazon Prime Video
— Topher Grace “Home Economics” ABC

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Lead Actor Comedy)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television’s most prestigious artistic award. There are many records held for both wins and nominations in the near eight decades.

For wins: Four actors have won the most prizes in this category, with four in all of Emmy history – Michael J. Fox, Kelsey Grammer, Carroll O’Connor and Jim Parsons. Fox and O’Connor have won three consecutive years. Except for Fox, Grammer (“Frasier”), O’Connor (“All in the Family”) and Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory”) won for the same television series. Fox won three for “Family Ties” and the other for “Spin City.” Four men have three times – Don Adams, John Lithgow, Tony Shalhoub and Dick Van Dyke.

For nominations: Ted Danson has the most nominations ever in this category with 14 (winning twice for “Cheers”). Alan Alda and Kelsey Grammer are next in line with 11, while Michael J. Fox, Carroll O’Connor and Tony Shalhoub have eight each.

John Goodman, Matt LeBlanc and Hal Linden have the most nominations without ever winning for lead actor in a comedy series. Goodman (“Roseanne”) and Linden (“Barney Miller”) were all nominated for the same series. LeBlanc’s nods are split between “Friends” (3) and “Episodes” (4).

“Cheers” and “M*A*S*H” are the leading series with nominations in this category, with 11 with “Frasier” and “The Odd Couple” (1970-1975) nabbing 10. NBC has won this category the most for any network with 26, while CBS and ABC have 19 and 11 wins. Amazon Prime Video is the first and only streaming platform to win this category for Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”) in two consecutive years.

2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions

2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions

  • Outstanding Television Movie
  • Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
  • Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
  • Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
  • Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
  • Outstanding Reality Host
  • Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series
  • Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series
  • Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special
  • Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special
  • Outstanding Animated Program
  • Outstanding Short Form Animated Program
  • Outstanding Voice-Over Performance
  • Outstanding Narrator
  • Outstanding Structured Program
  • Outstanding Unstructured Program
  • Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series
  • Outstanding Documentary Special
  • Outstanding Documentary Filmmaking
  • Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special
  • Outstanding Main Title Design
  • Outstanding Main Title Theme Music
  • Outstanding Music for Series
  • Outstanding Music for Limited Series
  • Outstanding Music and Lyrics
  • Outstanding Music Supervision

About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.

  • The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.

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